I recently read about German-based Convar helping cos. in NYC uncover
the facts surrounding the unusual surge (both in volume and amounts)
in financial transactions during & immediately preceding the WTC
disaster. Convar is using a laser scanning technology to recover data
from computer hard drives, main frames, etc. for credit card cos. ,
telecom institutions, and accountants. The huge no. and size of
transactions looks highly suspicious. OTOH, the U.S. could have gone
on an absolutely wild shopping binge that day. Thinking damaged
computers would be unable to track the money trail, some speculators
may have moved approximately >$100,000,000. Obviously, advance notice
of the disaster would give savvy traders a field day. The problem
is--- if such a blip was indeed the result of advanced knowledge and
an unconscionable form of insider trading or just an unprecedented
"blip" devoid of terrorist influence.
What forms of statistical analyses could be employed to satisfy those
with "suspicion" that such unusual events simply "happen"? Or, what
methodologies can be used to estimate the probability of a very
unusual event on a very unusual day. Is the notion of a conspiracy
plausible? What statistical treatments, if any, would be apropos? I
have some ideas, but would like others' views.
Poisson applications? Differences in means (given similar uneventful
day trading)? Any ideas or thoughts? One hopes it was simply an
unusually heavy day, but it sure produces a wariness that those "in
the know" profited from the misery of others.
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