1)    the plot of monthly mean temperature over time for any one site
is not going to be a Normal distribution - it is not a frequency
plot/histogram type of plot.  That the "mean temperature" from Jan to
Jan in Bismarck, ND has the appearance of a Normal distribution is
strictly an artifact of plotting - as someone pointed out by suggesting
a plot from April to April.  Sorry 'bout that.

2)    the monthly "mean temperature" is actually the average of the
daily "average."  The daily average is the average of the daily high
and daily low.  Nobody I know measures the temperature every second,
then computes the average for the day.  Why should we expect the daily
average to be Normally distributed?

3)    thanks to the Central Limit Theorem, we can confidently predict
that the monthly mean temperature, in one location, will be distributed
Normally, for any given month, over many years.  This approach was
suggested by one person (sorry, I'm not up on references this am) who
urged examination of one location with a frequency plot over a
consistent time.

4)    I once examined annual precipitation in Milwaukee's official
station over a 100 year period.  I cannot expect the distribution to be
Normal, as the CLT is not invoked.  However, I found that individual
extremes were not evident, even when the station was moved closer to
the local Lake.  Even the frightfully dry summer of '88 did not pop
out, since it rained a good deal in Oct..  For purposes of illustration
to your students, I think the resultant distribution would be quite
close enough to a Normal to satisfy them.  I think I can find the data
& ship it to those who are interested.

5)    It might be highly informative for your students to have them
figure out why some of these datasets are expected to be Normal, and
some are not expected to be so.

Cheers,
Jay

Stan Brown wrote:

> My class is starting normal distributions today, and I asked them to
> name some distributions and say whether they were normal.
>
> One student suggested seasons, such as high temperatures. Those are
> more nearly cyclical, but then I got to wondering if there are any
> seasonal or climate phenomena that are normally distributed. I can't
> think of any, but I wonder if I'm overlooking an obvious example.
>
> Any suggestions?
>
> --
> Stan Brown, Oak Road Systems, Cortland County, New York, USA
>                                    http://OakRoadSystems.com
> "Honesty always gives you the advantage of surprise."
>                                     -- /Yes, Prime Minister/

--
Jay Warner
Principal Scientist
Warner Consulting, Inc.
4444 North Green Bay Road
Racine, WI 53404-1216
USA

Ph: (262) 634-9100
FAX: (262) 681-1133
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