Hello, I am an undergraduate economics major, writing my thesis on flood insurance protection for the Grameen Bank's loan portfolio. The Grameen Bank is a financial institution in Bangladesh that has 2.5 million borrowers spread across 41,000 villages. The Bank makes "micro" loans to its borrowers, who use the loans to start their own small enterprises. Given that Bangladesh is situated on one of the largest deltaic plains in the world, 20%-33% of the country is subject floods on a regular basis which adversely affect these borrowers' enterprises. I am exploring the feasibility and price of insurance "cover" that would allow the Bank to protect itself against default by its borrowers after catastrophic floods such as the flood of 1998. The 1998 flood affected two-thirds of the Bank's borrowers and limited their ability to repay loans for nearly 10 weeks.
I have historical data on floods in Bangladesh (1954-1998) and I also have a basic insurance pricing model. I am looking for suggestions on how to use Palisade Decision Tools "@Risk" program to fit this historical data to a probability distribution function, and then use the function to simulate a set of 5-6,000 events that could be used in the model. Thank you for your help, Dev SenGupta [EMAIL PROTECTED] . . ================================================================= Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at: . http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ . =================================================================
