On 13 Jun 2003 15:13:58 -0700, [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Jay Warner) wrote: > Yes, it is/was Prof Emeritus Geo. Box who freuqently says/said: > > > All models are wrong; some are useful. > > I've heard him say this many times, in exactly the words above, > although I'm not sure where there might be a written, early, > documented ref.
Google led me to a couple of places that included the year 1972, without further attribution, and also to this note from the S-plus news list, giving one definite source in 1979 and another in 1976. ========== from S-plus list >From Norm Phillips, Peter Bouman, Stephen Smith, McCullagh & Nelder 2nd Ed. p.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------- >From Richard J Traub According to a posting last year on the Riskanal list, the answer is: All Models Are Wrong But Some Are Useful (note Caps are as in the quote) George E.P. Box Page 202 of "Robustness is the Strategy of Scientific Model Building" in Robustness in Statistics. eds., R.L. Launer and G.N. Wilkinson, 1979, Academic Press. ------------------------------------------------------------------- >From Rachel Fewster [EMAIL PROTECTED] Jean Adams Jerry W. Lewis I believe the quote you're interested in is from G.E.P. Box, 1976: Science and Statistics. J. American Statistical Association, 71, 791-799. ========= end of extract from google from S-plus. -- Rich Ulrich, [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.pitt.edu/~wpilib/index.html "Taxes are the price we pay for civilization." Justice Holmes. . . ================================================================= Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at: . http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ . =================================================================
