I like Don Burrill's suggestion. It can be done easily. Furthermore, if you are not reasonably familiar with regression methods, why would you seek out a second or 3rd level text? If you aren't reasonably sure that your simplifying data-related assumptions will lead you astray in terms of precision of predictions, then a 'complete' treatment is probably a waste of intellectual energy. Which is in itself a most precious resource.
to quote a number of statisticians, the first thing you do is PLOT YOUR DATA! Then look at it. IF and only if it appears to follow an exponential decay form, then a transformation will make the plot look straight, and you can consider fitting a straight line to it and making a prediction from there. Based on the statistical precision you can demonstrate at that point. If I were to undertake this type of study, the first thing I would do is even before that. I would ask how you intend to measure 'memory' and 'memory loss.' I would ask for operational definitions of the terms thrown around, and then would ask carefully whether the thing which you measure (such as % of items recalled) actually indicates what you think it does (memory loss?). When you could make clear, supportable statements about what you would measure, and how, then I would say to collect some data and see what the plot looked like. And good luck on your project. I'd add one other thing, but I forgot what it was :) Jay Top Spin wrote: > I would appreciate suggestions for text books or reference books on > exponential decay functions, probability distribution functions, and > the like. I should probably pick up one or two general introductory > books on probability and statistics, too. > > I am working on a little special interest project and I need some help > with my very fuzzy memory of probability distribution functions. > > I am trying to explore whether memory fades exponentially in a way > that is similar to radioactive isotopes decaying, batteries > discharging, or light bulbs burning out. I want to write some software > to gather data and test these ideas, but I need help with the math. I > want to fit the appropriate function to the test data and then use > that function to predict future data points. > > I studied many of these concepts in school back in the 60s (BS in > computer science with a physics minor), but I have not worked with > them for over 30 years. I generally understand what I want to do, but > the details of the mathematics (and statistics) are not clear to me. > > In searching the archives, I came across one recommendation for "The > Exponential Distribution Theory, Methods and Applications", Edited by: > N. Balakrishnan, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster > University, Ontario, Canada. This looks to be an excellent work. Can > anyone comment on it? > > I would also be interested in suggestions for texts dealing with > computer algorithms and implementations for these functions. Would one > of the Knuth books be good? Others? > > Thanks > > -- > Spam sink email address, sorry > . > . > ================================================================= > Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the > problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at: > . http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ . > ================================================================= -- Jay Warner Principal Scientist Warner Consulting, Inc. 4444 North Green Bay Road Racine, WI 53404-1216 USA Ph: (262) 634-9100 FAX: (262) 681-1133 email: [EMAIL PROTECTED] web: http://www.a2q.com The A2Q Method (tm) -- What do you want to improve today? . . ================================================================= Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at: . http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ . =================================================================
