Robert J. MacG. Dawson wrote:

>       Now suppose I tell you - surprise - the barrel has a false bottom and
> only contains 10,000 jellybeans, 1% of the number you'd assumed. Does it
> seem reasonable that your estimate has just got a lot better? (People
> making this mistake usually assume that a small population can be
> estimated better, not worse.)
> 
>       Or suppose the barrel is connected to a huge underground warehouse
> contianing a billion well-mixed jellybeans. Do you suddenly lose
> confidence in your estimate?
> 

I like that.  I was going to say for the same reason a doctor needs same 
amount of blood from a toddler as from an adult.  The estimates of 
concentrations of various components are not affected by the size of the 
donor.  Still, I like that.  It works in both directions and admits the 
FPCF, i.e, surprise - there are only 100 and a bunch of mirrors!
.
.
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