he.. he...! Apa om Henry ini yang bozznya Freeport yang punya gunung emas yang di Papua sana Mas...? Lumayan lama juga tuh dia dan kawan-kawannya nyedukin emas disana...
On Fri, May 30, 2008 at 6:04 PM, sidqy suyitno <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Globalization and its discontents > By Henry A. Kissinger > Published: May 29, > 2008http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/05/29/opinion/edkissinger.php > > For the first time in history, a genuinely > global economic system has come into being with prospects of heretofore > unimagined well-being. At the same time - paradoxically - the process of > globalization tempts a nationalism that threatens its fulfillment. > The basic premise of globalization is that > competition will sort out the most efficient, a process that, by definition, > involves winners and losers. If there are perennial losers, they will turn > to > their familiar political institutions for relief. They will not be mollified > by > the valid proposition that the benefits of global growth far outstrip > its costs. > Moreover, to remain competitive, many > countries are obliged to abridge their social legislation - a task bound to > generate domestic protests. In periods of economic distress, these trends > are > magnified. The debate over trade policy in the U.S.presidential campaign is > a case > in point. > In industrialized countries, globalization > impacts domestic politics in two ways: Improved productivity generates the > paradox of enhanced well-being, accompanied by higher unemployment. At the > same > time, there occurs a migration away from menial jobs, which are then filled > by > workers from abroad. A clash of cultures and a nationalism advocating > exclusion > develop. Variations of protectionism thereby acquire a domestic base. > That trend takes place even within the > productive sector of the industrialized world. Connected by the Internet to > similar industrial and financial institutions around the world, > transnational > enterprises operate in the global marketplace served by staffs that often > have > longer tenure than those of governments and fewer restrictions on > their analyses. > Enterprises that remain dependent on the > national economy generally do not have the same opportunities. On the whole, > they employ the labor force with the lowest wages and bleakest prospects. > They > tend to rely on more limited markets and on national political processes. > The > transnational companies advocate free trade and free movement of capital; > the > national companies (and trade unions) often push for protectionism. > Economic crises obviously magnify these > tendencies. And the globalized financial system has produced periodic crises > almost as predictably as its sustained growth: in Latin Americain the 1980s, > in Mexicoin 1994, in Asiain 1997, in Russiain 1998, in the United Statesin > 2001 and then again starting > in 2007. > While each crisis had a different trigger, > their common features have been profligate speculation and systemic > under-appreciation of risk. > With each decade, the role of speculative > capital has magnified. For speculative capital, nimbleness is the essential > attribute. Rushing in when it sees an opportunity and heading for the exit > at > the first sign of trouble, speculative capital has too often turned upswings > into bubbles and downward cycles into crises. > The strategic impact of globalization raises > perhaps the most important issues on two levels: Are there industries > indispensable for national security in which foreign investment should be > limited or even precluded? Second, what industries must be kept from > collapsing > to maintain America's defense capability? The answers to these > questions clearly lend themselves to abuse. But this is not an excuse for > avoiding what the national interest dictates must be faced. > The international system thus faces a > paradox. Its prosperity is dependent on the success of globalization, but > that > process produces a dialectic that can work counter to its aspiration. The > managers of globalization have few occasions to manage its political > processes. > The managers of the political process have incentives not necessarily > congruent > with the economic managers. This gap must be eliminated or at > least narrowed. > As a start, I offer the > following prescriptives: > The first imperative is to recognize that > these problems are the blemishes of great success. Debate about shortcomings > of > the process should not degenerate into attacks on its basic conceptual > framework, as has happened too frequently in the U.S.presidential campaign. > Political leaders > must avoid - not encourage - the protectionism that led to disaster in > the 1930s. > The parameters of the national security > limits to globalization should be established on a national basis rather > than > left to pressure groups, lobbyists and electoral politics. In the United > States, the next administration should establish a > bipartisan commission at the highest level to study what constitutes an > indispensable strategic U.S.industrial and technological base and the > measures to preserve it. High among its priorities must be a hard look at an > educational system that creates too few engineers and technologists in > comparison with our competitors. The criterion should be what is essential > for > national security, not to shield enterprises from the competition essential > for > global growth. That line will not be easy to draw, and the effort risks > political manipulation. But the problem will not go away and at some point > will > become unmanageable. > International economic institutions need to > be made relevant to current challenges. The annual Group of Eight summit > originated in 1975 as a meeting of six industrial democracies to chart their > economic and social futures during the first energy crisis. (Canada was > added > in 1976; Russia in 1998.) > At the first meeting in Rambouillet, France, each country was allowed only > three > participants, including the president, to facilitate frank discussion. Since > then, the meetings have degenerated into large assemblies serving > essentially > political functions. > They should be restored to their original > purpose, devoted primarily to issues affecting the long-term health of the > global economy, including giving opportunities to societies that have been > left > behind to participate in global growth. In that process, India, Chinaand > potentially Brazilshould be included. > The original Group of Seven industrial > democracies should continue to meet at the level of finance ministers during > the G-8 meetings. This G-7 should be charged, above all, with addressing the > domestic and social distortions caused by globalization. > The International Monetary Fund as presently > constituted is an anachronism. It has been a bystander in the financial > crises > of the 21st century, which have been produced by practices within the > private > sectors. The IMF has sought to adapt, but too slowly; it needs to > be reformed. > The lending practices that produced the U.S.economic crisis require urgent > attention > and greater international cooperation. Profligate and obscurantist practices > were evident long before the crisis struck. They were made possible by the > invention > of financial instruments that encouraged speculation while obscuring the > nature > of obligations. In the subprime mortgage debacle, lenders lost the ability > to > estimate the extent of their obligations and the indebted to understand the > implications of their commitments. > Moral hazard needs to be faced. There is an > inherent contradiction when financial entities are permitted to reap > extraordinary profits and manage vast assets and then, when conditions > change, > are declared too large to be permitted to fail, requiring taxpayer bailouts. > Financial institutions, whether investment banks or hedge funds, need > oversight > in a way that protects the taxpayer's interest. > In sum, if the gap between the economic and > political orders is not substantially narrowed, the two structures will wind > up > weakening each other. > ** Henry A. Kissinger heads > the consulting firm Kissinger & Associates. Distributed by Tribune > Media Services. > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] > >
