The best way is to test it. Take 1 node with say 16GB of RAM and allocate 8GB to ES. Then start pushing 1 day worth of logs into an index with 5 shards and 0 replicas on that one node AND run your typical queries. Take measurements like throughput/dps, query latency, ram usage, cpu, and disk. Then you'll know how much you can do on a single node and then start extrapolating from there.
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