Hi Tim,
Don't panic. We're a long way from dooms day :-) . Significant BPL
deployment is several years off even in the most optimistic plans by
power line companies, and they face extremely strong competition from
the faster and cheaper DSL and Cable systems that are already in place
in most of the communities that we live. Economic reality will be the
strongest force against its deployment. To be honest, I think it will
receive limited deployment and will be more of an irritant as they
deploy it on a limited basis, and then shut it down due to a lack of
profitability, than a major problem to ham radio.
It is questionable weather they can make it economically profitable. We
already have double speed DSL at my home for $49 a month and regular DSL
is only $29 a month ($19.95 in some areas). DSL, Cable and wireless
internet solutions will only get faster and cheaper while BPL is pretty
much stuck at a mediocre speed and has high capital equipment and
maintenance costs. On top of that the ARRL has made it clear they will
aggressively pursue those systems that cause harmful interference,
creating more uncertainty for those at the power companies that have to
look at the profit and loss potential of their BPL deployments. In its
released rules the FCC did not relax the part 15 emissions limits, and
they -did- include strong requirements to the power companies to include
major interference mitigation capabilities into their BPL systems. This
gives us several tools to keep things under control.
To be honest I think the FCC passed this more for competitive reasons to
keep the DSL and cable guys honest than to actually push out a new broad
band technology of doubtful economic viability. Time will tell on how
much hassle it is to us, but I think that even in the worst case
scenario you will have had time to build, use and sell many K2s (and
other new products from us) before you would notice any major impact to
your daily operating on the air. :-) If I ran my businesses from a
position of fear I would have never started any. I'm an optimistic guy
in general, and I've found that during my past 33 years as a ham that
most threats to our hobby (and other areas like the Y2000 panic that
fizzled out) have turned out to be must less of a problem than we
originally thought. This is one we certainly have to stay on top of, but
I think it is manageable. We're certainly not running for the hills yet
at Elecraft central. We have a lot of goodies in the design pipeline :-)
The bottom line: Keep on building and enjoy ham radio :-)
To the rest of the list: Let's not get into a major debate on BPL again.
Its OK to post some -short- answers to Tim's inquiry today, but if
volume gets too high, and certainly after today, I'll limit discussion
on this topic in the interest of keeping list traffic under control :-)
73, Eric WA6HHQ
Elecraft List Moderator
-------------------
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
Hello folks -
Well, it's been a long while since I've been on this reflector but I am getting the fever to build
again (this would be my 3rd K2). However, I find lately I am more reticent to spend money on
equipment because of the eventual "BPL threat effect". So I am curious to hear from any
on the reflector who are truly well-versed in this field : 1 - Many say that regardless of the FCC,
BPL is not a threat because it is not economically feasible - witness attempts in Europe which were
abandoned because of economic infeasibility. 2 - Others eschew the "it's all over for the ham
bands" view. Is there anyone close to the BPL world that has some good solid input /
conjecture (vs uninformed gripes :-) on this before I invest in another K2 project? Thanks in
advance and I hope this topic is OK with Wayne and Eric.
73/Tim NZ7C
_
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