I'd pay more attention to predictions based upon theoretical
considerations. Those based upon historical data patterns, statistical
interpretation, curve fitting, etc are about as useful as stock market
or global climate predictions. Someone can always take a bunch of
historical data and come up with a clever scheme to accurately account
for past events, but when it comes to predicting the future it falls to
pieces.
I'll be doing CW in any case. That's my prediction.
73,
Drew
AF2Z
On 10/09/18 13:37, Dauer, Edward wrote:
For those who do not take CQ magazine, there is an article this month very much
worth reading. It summarizes recent findings about the forthcoming sunspot
cycle and its effect on propagation. To quote from the reported studies, “ .
. . the start of Cycle 25 could be delayed to 2021 or 2022 and will be very
weak, if it even happens at all . . . . this (Cycle 24) could be the last
solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades . . . .” Guess I’d better gear up
for FT8.
I personally cannot assess the quality of the research nor its full
implications. Just thought I would alert others who may be interested to the
article.
Ted, KN1CBR
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