Is it possible you're setup is arcing inside the relay? 

You're probably very familiar with shipboard environments and have taken
precautions so forgive me if I'm stating the obvious to you. I keep
remembering how often I've been knocked on my a$$ simply by carelessly
grabbing onto a disconnected antenna wire. Even the common 22 ft fiberglass
marine "whips" have been known to produce arcs. One time I walked into a
darkened radio room and saw a tiny flash and heard a "snap" before I turned
the lights on. I waited and a few seconds later it happened again. It was
coming from a disconnected PL259 on the end of a coax leading to one of
those whips that "Sparky" had left disconnected. Static was collecting fast
enough to cause regular flash-over from the center pin to the shell. 

So what I have in mind is that if your antenna doesn't have a good enough
d-c ground return circuit for extreme conditions perhaps enough charge is
developing to arc over inside the ATU and, in this case, perhaps it has
found a path from the relay contacts to the coil then to a ground, taking
out the bypass cap with it. 

As you know, once an arc occurs the carbon path it creates will encourage
further discharges to follow the same circuit (and through the same parts)

Ron AC7AC



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