On 6 May 2005 at 00:52 UTC-0700, Alex Small wrote: > Long time no post. I'm wrapping up the writing on my dissertation, > but I couldn't resist jumping in to post on the British election. > > The Liberal Democrats are putting in their strongest showing since > the 1920's. What's interesting from the non-partisan standpoint of > this list is that Britain uses plurality voting from single-member > districts, and yet the LibDems got 22% of the popular vote at last > count and approximately 9% of the seats. The usual rule of thumb is > that plurality voting from single-member districts encourages the > formation of a 2-party system. That's certainly the case in the US, > both nationally and in the 50 states (which can be seen as 50 > different units to compare). > > The appeal of the LibDems is even more surprising when you consider > that it's a parliamentary system. The stakes in a legislative race > are even higher, so at first glance I would think that there's even > more of an incentive to vote for one of the 2 major parties. > Finally, while most of the other parties in the British Parliament > are regional/ethnic parties representing Wales, Northern Ireland, > and Scotland, the LibDems are more about issues and ideology rather > than ethnic/regional identity. > > Now, it may be tempting to explain these results solely in terms of > current events: Tony Blair has alienated elements of the left and > center, and the Tories are such an abysmal mess that even Gray Davis > has lost respect for them. But the LibDems have persisted despite > the fact that they've been the third party in size for 80+ years. > I'm more surprised by their persistence over time than I am by their > current popularity. > > Does anybody know why Duverger's Law has been so stubbornly resisted > in Britain for 80+ years? I'd be genuinely curious to know. > > Alex
Duverger's "Law" is not absolute, and I think it assumes some party stability and regional homogeneity. Extracting from the top of the wikipedia entry (which ought to be imported into electowiki): ,----[ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%27s_law ] | Duverger's Law is a principle which asserts that a | first-past-the-post election system naturally leads to a two-party | system. The discovery of this principle is attributed to Maurice | Duverger, a French sociologist who observed the effect and recorded | it in several papers published in the 1950s and 1960s. In the course | of further research, other political scientists began calling the | effect a �law�. | | While there are indeed many FPTP systems with two parties, there are | significant counterexamples: Scotland has had until recently | first-past-the-post and similar systems but has seen the development | of several significant competing political parties. Many | commentators regard the United Kingdom's Liberal Democrat party, | since the 2005 General Election, as forming a 'third party' and | creating a three-party system. Canada and India have multiple | regional parties. Duverger himself did not regard his principle as | absolute: instead he suggested that first-past-the-post would act to | delay the emergence of a new political force, and would accelerate | the elimination of a weakening force - proportional representation | would have the opposite effect. | | Additionally, William H. Riker noted that strong regional parties | can distort matters, leading to more than two parties nationwide, | even if there are only two parties competitive in any single | district. He pointed to Canada's regional politics, as well as the | U.S. presidential election of 1860, as examples of often temporary | regional instability that occurs from time-to-time in otherwise | stable two-party systems (Riker, 1982). `---- In the US 1860 election, there was not only regional instability, but the Whigs were disintegrating and the Democratic and fledgling Republican parties (and others) were scrambling for dominance in a highly charged race. This entry appears to be very recently updated, BTW. Monk -- araucaria dot araucana at gmail dot com ---- Election-methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for list info
