Re: [EM] Richard's frontrunners example

[Martin Harper]

Can I try a simpler example?

42 Voters. 3 Candidates (ABCD)

20 of them are cloned, and always vote identically for one of A,B,C. 
(one in three of each)
10 of them are committed "A" supporters.
10 of them is a floating voters between A,B,C. (one in three of each)
1 of them is a committed B supporter
1 of them is a committed C supporter.

The probability that, given a tie, A is a frontrunner, is 1. The 
probability that A is a frontrunner is around 1/3. 1 != 1/3.