RE: [EM] Responses to some of Forest's ideas

[LAYTON Craig]

Richard Moore wrote:

>Considering unequal probabilities for A, B, C, and 
>D is considerably more difficult. This is where we need the 
>Pij for each pair (not just who the front-runners from a 
>poll are) and I don't think we can calculate that with 
>precision for the reasons I give below.

You know much more about this than me, but it seems that an important factor
such as the probability of each candidate winning should not be ignored,
simply because Pij calculations are most likely imprecise.

>None of this should be taken as a strike against Approval. 
>No rational voter will reverse a preference in Approval, 

Actually, I believe I gave an example a few months ago - it was more of a
challenge asking people how they would vote in an approval election given
particular polling results and sincere utilities.  Bart Ingles noted in his
response that it might be in the best interests of the voter to reverse one
of their preferences.  It is possible in some border-line cases that
reversing a preference is in your best interests, but this obviously
requires unequal probability considerations, which we know are imprecise.

Craig Layton