D- Having a gerrymander stacked deck is always nice for an incumbent. Abolish the infamous Electoral College NOW.
Democracy Remedy-- One person- One Vote for U.S.A. President ---- who is supposed to be the President of ALL of the People of the U.S.A. and NOT just the President of the People in the gerrymander areas that provide 270 Electoral College votes -- indirectly by about 25 percent of the total voters for President. --- Electoral Numbers Game Favors Bush For 2004 Election by Stu Rothenberg While redistricting's greatest impact will be felt in November, reapportionment's effects may not be felt most acutely for two years, when President Bush tries to put together 270 electoral votes to win a second term. We can't know now exactly what odds the President will face in his expected bid for re-election, but we do know that he'll have a bit of a cushion next time: seven additional Electoral College votes to play with. In 2000, Bush carried seven of the eight states that gained population over the last decade. Those states will gain House seats in the midterm elections and electoral votes in 2004. In contrast, Al Gore carried six of the 10 states that will lose electoral votes in 2004. Viewed another way, states that went for Bush will gain 11 electoral votes through reapportionment and will lose just four, while states that went for Gore will gain just a single electoral vote (in California), but will lose eight. If Bush carries the same 30 states he did in 2000, he would draw 278 Electoral College votes instead of the 271 he received in 2000. And the Democratic nominee's total number of electoral votes would fall from 266 to 260. Seven additional electoral votes may not seem like a lot, but they would more than offset the possible loss of Nevada's five electoral votes if the voters of that state punish Bush in 2004 for his decision to proceed with his plan to store nuclear waste in Nevada's Yucca Mountain. Bush has a different kind of advantage when it comes to the closest contests of 2000. Seven states were decided by a margin of fewer than 3 points last time, and Bush won just two of them, Florida (a virtual dead heat) and New Hampshire (by 1.3 points). Gore, on the other hand, carried four states by one-half of a point or less (New Mexico, Wisconsin, Iowa and Oregon), and one state by just 2.4 points (Minnesota). The two states that Bush won narrowly will account for 31 electoral votes in 2004, while the five closest states that went for Gore will deliver 39 electoral votes next time. That means Bush is slightly better positioned than the 2004 Democratic nominee is to pick up additional electoral votes. But that math tells only part of the story, since a contrary dynamic - Hispanic population growth and (potential) political participation - should benefit Bush's eventual Democratic opponent in two years. Demographic trends could have their greatest impact in a handful of competitive states where a growing number of Hispanic voters could make a difference in just four years. In Nevada, where Hispanics constituted 12 percent of the total electorate in 2000, Bush carried the state by just 3 points, 49 percent to 46 percent. Hispanics, on the other hand, preferred Gore 64 percent to 33 percent. If their numbers continue to grow, and they give the 2004 Democratic nominee the same percentage of the vote that they gave to Gore, Hispanics could move the state's electoral votes into the Democratic column. The same demographic trend could affect races in other states in the South and the West. In Arizona, which Bush won by just 6 points, 51 percent to 45 percent, Hispanics constituted 10 percent of the 2000 electorate. They gave 65 percent of their votes to Gore. And in New Mexico, where the two finished in a virtual dead heat (with Gore getting the state's electoral votes), Hispanics accounted for 12 percent of voters and preferred Gore by better than 2-to-1, 66 percent to 32 percent. Even in Florida, demographic trends could have an interesting impact for Bush. Two years ago, Bush beat Gore among Florida Hispanics, 49 percent to 48 percent, a better showing than the Republican had statewide. On the surface, that would seem to be good news for Bush, since any growth in Hispanics could benefit the President's re-election bid. But Hispanic growth in the Florida electorate in 2000 was among non-Cuban Hispanics, and continued growth in that demographic group would almost certainly benefit the Democratic nominee, not Bush, in 2004. Obviously, the 2004 presidential contest will present voters a choice of parties and candidates, and the outcome will depend on dozens of factors. The contest ultimately could be a blowout. But if it's close, small changes in electoral votes and demographics could prove to be the difference. That's why the parties will spend plenty of time going over all of the numbers - and why the numbers could count as much as the candidates.
