I forgot to mention Hoffman's probability function for his Pij estimating method:
He used a previous election, with the same candidates. But it could be identical ones, or at least the same parties. Adjusting the candidate vote totals according to the entire vote total, he used the outcome point of that previous election as the most probable outcome point for the current election, the one for which we want the Pij. The probability density for the position of the outcome-point, at a certain point in outcome space, is related by that point's distance from the most probable outcome point, by the normal function. The parameters of that normal function are chosen based on previous elections. He integrated that outcome-point probability density function over the various tie regions, to determine the Pij. Mike Ossipoff _________________________________________________________________ Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp. ---- For more information about this list (subscribe, unsubscribe, FAQ, etc), please see http://www.eskimo.com/~robla/em
