>*2. So for example, if >49% voted Bush=99, Gore=0, Nader=53(avg), and >49% voted Gore=99, Bush=0, Nader=53(avg), and >2% voted Nader=99, Gore=20, Bush=0 >then Nader would win. > >This structure is a realistic possibility that totally contradicts >the assertion RV >"gives power to the candidate whose supporters >have the most black and white, polarized view of the world." >In this case, Nader is winning despite a severe lack of polarized >Nader supporters.
Well, in this example Nader supporters were more "polarized" than either Bush or Gore ones. Anyway, picked up examples don't refute hypotheses about tendencies. >*3. If we also add, say, Badnarik with scores not of 53 like for >Nader, but rather, say, 20, then Badnarik would not win, >but still would get a total range-voting >score in the same ballpark as Bush, Gore, and Nader, thus permitting >him to claim he has a lot of popular support, and thus allowing his >party to try to get money and support for future elections. I wouln't vote that way. If concerned with these smaller scores, I would ask the question: will Badnarik get more or less points than I think he deserves? If think: more, I would give him 0 points to lesser; if think: less, I would give him full points to enhance. >Note, it was an "immediate" bad effect that (above) >Approval caused Nader to lose >when Range vould have caused him to win. Not necessarily. A lot of 53 percenters would approve him. >In our study of the 2004 US election, we were not able >to find any evidence that >Bush voters were either more or less "polarized" and >"strategically exaggerating" >than Gore voters. (Perhaps they were, but if so the >effect was too small for our >statistics to see.) In other words: yes, correlation between degree of strategizing and political stance makes Bayesian regret bigger. But we don't have reason to be afraid of big correlations of that kind. Peter Barath ____________________________________________________________________ Tavaszig, most minden féláron! ADSL Internet már 1 745 Ft/hó -tól. Keresse ajánlatunkat a http://www.freestart.hu oldalon! ---- Election-Methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for list info
