On Sun, 23 Nov 2008 18:04:09 -0000 James Gilmour wrote:
Kristofer Munsterhjelm > Sent: Sunday, November 23, 2008 4:11 PM
I'm not Kevin, but I think I can comment. In any method that's [some
base method] + runoff, where the runoff candidates are picked from the
social ordering of the base method, the existence of the second round
would increase the incentive to strategize.
With 2/3 of the voters agreed they will vote left, they could have made out
much better with Condorcet. Even if all voted the indicated first choice
it would not have taken many second choice Jospin votes for him to win.
Some others also were possibilities with Condorcet.
Debatable whether a runoff would have been appropriate with Condorcet.
Unlike Plurality, it permits voters to more completely express their desires.
DWK
So what happened to the incentive to strategize in the first round of the 2002
French Presidential election?
First Round Results
Jacques Chirac Rally for France (RPF) 19.83%
Jean-Marie Le Pen National Front (FN) 16.91%
Lionel Jospin Socialist Party (PS) 16.14%
François Bayrou Union for French Democracy (UDF) 6.84%
Arlette Laguiller Workers' Struggle (LO) 5.73%
Jean-Pierre Chevènement Citizens' Movement (MC) 5.33%
Noël Mamère Greens (Vert) 5.24%
Olivier Besancenot Revolutionary Communist League (LCR) 4.26%
Jean Saint-Josse Hunting, Fishing, Nature and Traditions (CPNT) 4.25%
Alain Madelin Liberal Democracy (DL) 3.92%
Robert Hue Communist Party (PCF) 3.38%
Bruno Mégret National Republican Movement (MNR) 2.35%
Christiane Taubira Radical Left Party 2.32%
Corinne Lepage Citizenship, Action, Participation Movement (MCAP) 1.88%
Christine Boutin Social Republican Forum (FRS) 1.19%
Daniel Gluckstein Workers' Party (PT) 0.47%
ELECTORATE: 40,320,334
TURNOUT: 29,149,143
The second round of this TTRO election was a choice between one candidate from
the centre-right and one candidate from the extreme
right, despite two-thirds of the voters supporting candidates from the left.
Jacques Chirac received 25,316,647 votes (82.14%) and Jean-Marie Le Pen
received 5,502,314 (17.85%). Around 4% of votes were spoilt
in protest and 20% of the electorate did not vote.
I am convinced that had this been an exhaustive ballot (multi-round run-off),
IRV or Condorcet election, the result would have been
quite different. Certainly the final "top two" choice would have been very
different.
The effects of TTRO are well known, but this is what real political parties do
in real TTRO elections (in terms of nominating
candidates), and is what real voters do in real TTRO elections (in terms of
scattering their votes around), and the results are
disastrous - and not just for the French in this case - we all had to live
with the political consequences of this election.
James Gilmour
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