On Jan 10, 2010, at 9:40 PM, Jonathan Lundell wrote:
On Jan 10, 2010, at 11:22 AM, Terry Bouricius wrote:
Although Abd often asserts that IRV replicates FPTP results, I
don't think
he is claiming that in the last Burlington election. The plurality
leader
was the Republican Kurt Wright with 33%. He presumably would have won
under FPTP. However, as the weaker candidates were eliminated
(first the
Green and Independent, and then the Democrat) the Progressive Party
incumbent mayor who was in second place in the initial first-choice
tally
won the runoff.
Of course, there is the additional factor that a change in voting
rules
would likely change both campaign tactics as well as fears about
spoilers,
and whether all five candidates would have even run. It is certainly
possible that the Democratic Party candidate would be dismissed as a
"spoiler" with the Republican challenger and Progressive incumbent
being
seen as the "credible" candidates. It is also quite possible that the
Independent with around 10% first choice support would not have run
if
FPTP had been used. Voters rather universally ranked their true
favorite
choice as number one, but that wouldn't have been true under FPTP.
IRV resulted in a VERY different set of dynamics than would have
existed
with FPTP, so it is impossible to say with any certainty what the
outcome
would have been. It is also noteworthy that the current debate is NOT
about substituting typical FPTP, but rather FPTP with a 40%
requirement.
Under that scenario, it is quite likely that the Progressive would
have
won as well, since no candidate reached 40% initially, and IRV
replicated
the likely runoff outcome.
This is a point that bears repeating, since it doesn't seem to sink
in. It's much to easy to casually assume that ballots cast under one
system (in this case IRV) can be recounted under some other rule
with the assumption that voters would have cast the same (or at
least equivalent) ballots under that other rule.
What is excellent in this Burlington election is that it probably
managed to capture quite well the sincere opinions of the voters (they
didn't anticipate that some of them would have been better of if they
had not voted sincerely). This makes it easier to estimate how various
methods would behave in this city (and how people would vote in them).
Juho
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