True. My vote has probably not made any difference in any of the (large) elections that I have ever participated. But on the other hand, was that the intention of the election? Probably not. I guess the intention was to elect those alternatives that had wide support. Allowing me to change the winner (with any significant probability) would have violated the principles of democracy.
> If you (or I) have any political freedom in the face of state power > and laws, then it cannot possibly come from voting in elections. I think I had my fair share of power (1 / number of voters). (One more possible explanation is that the politicians were at least afraid of me voting against them, and that's why they did what I wanted them to do.) Juho On 14.10.2011, at 20.39, Michael Allan wrote: > Hi Juho, > >> Yes, there are many additional factors. Already a vote without any >> discussions between voters can be seen as a part of a complex >> process. At lest the input that the voter got was complex, even if >> the voter did not produce any "output" in his environment. Also the >> margin of the victory will be meaningful like Andrew Myers said. ... > > Granted that a margin of victory has effects in the objective world, > it does not follow that an individual vote also has effects. Or at > least Andrew does not appear to be claiming this. > >> ... And the voter himself could be already thinking about the next >> election. In order to win then, every single additional vote in this >> election may be important. > > Again, that does not seem to follow. We are still confronted with a > measurable effect of zero, as empirical science can show: > > 1. Take the last election in which you voted, and look at its > outcome (P). Who got into office? > 2. Subtract your vote from that election. > 3. Recalculate the outcome without your vote (Q). > 4. Look at the difference between P and Q. > 5. Repeat for all the elections you ever participated in. > Your vote never made a difference. My vote never made a > differerence. Others: did your vote ever make a difference? > > If you (or I) have any political freedom in the face of state power > and laws, then it cannot possibly come from voting in elections. > > -- > Michael Allan > > Toronto, +1 416-699-9528 > http://zelea.com/ > > > Juho Laatu wrote: >> On 7.10.2011, at 12.19, Michael Allan wrote: >> >>> Imagine one person is nodding >>> in agreement to a proposal, while another is shaking her head. >> >>> We could ask, "What effect did this voter *as such* >>> have on the decision that was reached, or anything that followed from >>> it?" In most cases, the answer would be incalculable, tied up in a >>> web of cause and effect that plays out endlessly. We might say it was >>> "boundless", or that it hovered somewhere between zero and infinity. >>> >>> In further reply to Juho, I would offer this indeterminacy as an >>> alternative to the apparent dilemma of no effect vs. decisive effect. >> >> Yes, there are many additional factors. Already a vote without any >> discussions between voters can be seen as a part of a complex >> process. At lest the input that the voter got was complex, even if >> the voter did not produce any "output" in his environment. Also the >> margin of the victory will be meaningful like Andrew Myers said. And >> the voter himself could be already thinking about the next >> election. In order to win then, every single additional vote in this >> election may be important. > >> Juho > ---- > Election-Methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for list info ---- Election-Methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for list info
