Good Morning, Michael
I've pondered your assertion that "the effect of an individual vote is
exactly zero" for a considerable time and do not believe it is sound.
Your 5 points assume that elections are static events. They're not.
> 1. Take the last election in which you voted, and look at
> its political outcome (P). Who got into office?
> 2. Subtract your vote from that election.
> 3. Recalculate the outcome without your vote (Q).
> 4. Look at the difference between P and Q.
> 5. Repeat for all the elections you ever participated in.
Elections do not take place in a vacuum. Individuals are inspired to
vote (or not vote) by the circumstances extant at the time of polling.
You cannot subtract a vote from an election without considering the
change in circumstances that caused the individual to not vote and
accounting for the effect of the changed circumstances on the
electorate. If the new circumstances caused an entire bloc of
like-minded individuals to not vote, it would alter the election result.
The only question is the extent of the alteration. It may, or may
not, change the result.
I do not question the fact that the effect of a single vote is
infinitesimal, but it is not zero. A single vote affects an election in
the same way a single drop of sea-water affects the tides.
I'm unclear about why you think the difference between infinitesimal and
zero is significant. Perhaps your response to the "questions about
other sections" will clarify the matter.
Fred Gohlke
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