> Subject: Re: [EM] Conceiving a Democratic Electoral Process > Message-ID: <[email protected]> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed >
> > re: "I don't believe that non-partisans are a majority of the > register votes, and even a smaller percent of the voters. > > I agree that non-partisans are not a majority of the registered voters. > As to the percentage of non-partisans among the voters, I disagree. > I'm not an actuary or even a good researcher, but here's how I arrived > at my estimate. I started, not with the number of voters, but with the > number of potential voters: Re the relative number of partisans and non-partisans, the proportion of partisans/nonpartisans depends entirely on the state. In some states like MA, the vast majority of voters are registered as non-partisans. In others, the majority of registered voters register for a party. I think in part it must depend on the type of primary, open or closed, each state has. In some states, such as OH, there is no partisanship recorded at all, one way or the other, in the voter registration rolls, so it's difficult to tell. In Florida many registered Dems tend to vote for Republicans in statewide and federal elections, registration vestiges from the old South Lincoln days. Some political scientists have undoubtedly done research to try to determine the fundamental partisanship levels, but so much of opinion and exit poll survey research work is questionably scientific due to the blatant adjustment of samples to match unaudited, unverified prior election results that are today counted in secret with ample opportunities for vote manipulation in the vast majority of states. Plus it is known that voters often inflate the rate at which they voted for the successful prior candidate. Kathy Dopp http://electionmathematics.org Town of Colonie, NY 12304 "One of the best ways to keep any conversation civil is to support the discussion with true facts." "Renewable energy is homeland security." Fundamentals of Verifiable Elections http://kathydopp.com/wordpress/?p=174 View some of my research on my SSRN Author page: http://ssrn.com/author=1451051 ---- Election-Methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for list info
