2013/1/9 Michael Ossipoff <[email protected]> > Strong IIAC: > ----------------- > > Premise: > > An election is held. Everyone votes so as to maximize their utility > expectation, based on their utility-valuations of the candidates, and > their estimates or perceptions of any relevant probabilities regarding > how people will vote, or of count-occurrences such as particular > pair-ties. > > After the election is counted, and the winner recorded, but before any > results are announced to anyone other than the counters, one of the > candidates, who isn't the winner, is hit and killed by a car. Because > a different candidate-set could cause people to vote differently, a > new election is held. > > Again, people vote so as to maximize their expectation, as described > in the first paragraph. > > Requirement; > > The winner of the 2nd election must be the same as the winner of the > 1st election. > > [end of Strong IIAC definition] > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > > If it sounds as if it would be difficult to determine whether a method > meets that criterion, then I remind you that the example-writer is > free to devise _any_ example that complies with the criterion's > premise. The example-writer can choose a simple but extreme example > with particularly extreme or simplified utilities and probability > perceptions. > > I suggest that you'll find that no non-probabilistic and > non-dictatorial method can meet Strong IIAC, as defined above. >
I agree. However, they will break it with different probabilities, given a universe of scenarios. For a realistic universe, I suggest MJ will break it less often than Approval or Score. I realize that the above claim is unsubstantiated. But note that I above agree with an unsubstantiated claim. As I said in my prior message, instead of simply pointing out that claims are unsubstantiated, we'll get a lot further if you also say how plausible and relevant you find them.
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