Russ:

There are several causes of sugar maple decline. Multi-year droughts are 
always a problem wherever they occur within the range of the species. 
Acid rain on certain soil types, leading to calcium deficiency can also 
contribute. In the north, European earthworm invasion is one of the main 
causes of decline. The worms make the soil more dense, warmer, drier and 
more nutrient poor (Phosphorous cycling is disrupted by earthworms and 
apparently this contributes to sugar maple decline).  All of these 
changes in the ecosystem exacerbate the impacts of droughts, and also 
will reinforce the impacts of a changing climate. We have a study in 
review that shows a 30% decline in sugar maple ring widths due to 
earthworm invasion.

Sugar maple (like most tree species) has strong ecotypic differentiation 
by latitude, which does make it vulnerable to climate change. In other 
words, local populations of sugar maple cannot tolerate the range of 
conditions the species as a whole can withstand, so even a modest 
northward shift in range of the species will put all populations out of 
sync with the climate.

I don't think sugar maple is going to go extinct, but its niche within 
its current range is likely to be reduced by all these factors.

Lee

[email protected] wrote:
> ENTS:
>  
> I'm not certain about the pending extinction of sugar maple.  It is an 
> extremely common tree in areas far south of New England and most 
> generally the trees appear to be healthy.  Because we are closer to 
> the sources of acid deposition and pollution from coal fired power 
> plants that are causing great harm the north woods I would at least 
> want to consider that air pollution rather than climate change is a 
> major factor in northern sugar maple decline.
>  
> Russ 
>
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