Steve- Hmmm, mixed metaphors.. -Don Subject: [ENTS] Re: High elevation forest response to climate change and other factors Date: Wed, 3 Jun 2009 08:37:07 -0500 From: [email protected] To: [email protected]
RE: [ENTS] RE: High elevation forest response to climate change and other factors Mike, Dendrochronology is a fascinating study, albeit it still seems to be in its infancy (from what I’ve read about the subject). Dr. Henri Grassino-Mayer (google him) seems to be the leader in this young field (without offering offence to any dendrochronologists who may monitor this board). He recently analyzed a Stradivarius violin to confirm its’ age (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/01/0107_040107_violin.html ), ironically, the question was, was the violin created during a “mini ice-age” (must have been during Global Cooling). A few years ago, dendrochronology was implemented on some stumps in the Pike National Forest in Colorado, near the US Forest Service Research lodge. Through detailed logging records and the normal low humidity in the Rocky Mountains, stumps still remain from some of these trees (Ponderosa pine) that were logged in the 1870s (forget the exact year, but was recorded). The stumps would serve as the base. The main focus of the study was fire history in the region. Some of the conclusions reached from the rings included a somewhat, although inconsistent fire cycle of around 13 years. Some fires were hotter than others. Drought years can be determined although temperature ranges seem to be a little inconclusive. Perhaps assumptions are that during drought events, temperatures are higher (but how much higher?). Climate change proponents have made many assumptions that are not conclusive without doubt concerning tree ring size and shape. Concerning the 600A.D. date of recorded climate data from tree rings, I would question this. The samples used at Pike National Forest only went back to the 1400’s and they were inconclusive regarding pin-pointing temperatures in the region. Sorry Don, but your arguments for the Global Warming / Worldwide Climate change are built on shifting sands in my view. Steve Springer From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of DON BERTOLETTE Sent: Tuesday, June 02, 2009 9:50 PM To: [email protected] Subject: [ENTS] Re: High elevation forest response to climate change and other factors Mike- I don't pretend to know much about NIPF in Massachusetts. I don't think you have ever read me saying the phrase global warming. I know that to be a loaded concept that hasn't been universally accepted. But I do believe that the regions I've worked and lived in are experiencing climate change outside of the natural range of climate variation. Yes, actually there is tree ring documentation to that effect. Dendrochronology started with a man named Douglas at the Flagstaff Observatory (the one that discovered "canals" on Mars), and was furthered in partnership with early archeologist Emil Haury when they discovered missing tree ring segments in Anastazi roofing timbers...there are some really intereseting regional climate graphs that have been derived from dendrochronological research carried on at the University of Arizona at their Tree Ring Lab ('google' Tom Swetnum for a broad coverage of just about everything I've said). I do however have a fair handle on forestry in the Southwest US. I can send you any number of supporting documents regarding my statements below. I stand behind my statement that all five of those points are inter-related, not separated as they were in your reply. Deconstruction doesn't work that way. Regarding your comments on bio-fuels, you may be surprised that I've supported it, particularly in the Southwest, and with smaller more efficient operations. For much of the ponderosa pine forests, conditions (4 of 5 points below) have led to abundant smallwood that despite multiple efforts, no commercial operations can handle. More acres of controlled burning occur than should (difficult not to exceed air quality regulations), and running it as bio-fuel through an efficient energy generation plant was a solution being sought in Northern Arizona. Finding the balance between constant, consistent, regular source in the amounts appropriate for the energy generated was the key, that and being located centrally to the source. The small wood fuels are abundant and burgeoning. -Don From: [email protected] To: [email protected] Subject: [ENTS] Re: High elevation forest response to climate change and other factors Date: Tue, 2 Jun 2009 16:41:24 -0400 Don, How do you know that the current drought in the west is the worst since 600 AD? Tree ring data? I would say that unnatural fire suppression has led to invading white fir regeneration and above normal ponderosa pine regeneration as well as much of the bark beetle outbreaks. Blaming it all on global warming is bunk. Mike -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of DON BERTOLETTE Sent: Monday, June 01, 2009 4:06 PM To: [email protected] Subject: [ENTS] RE: High elevation forest response to climate change and other factors Lee- Yes, these instances are almost always not a single cause issue...in the case of higher than normal mortality of old-growth ponderosa pine forests on the North Rim at Grand Canyon, it was a combination of: 1) altered natural fire regime, 2) invading white fir regeneration, competing with 3) above normal ponderosa pine regeneration, 4) 15 years of drought (not seen this long or serious since 600 AD), 4) causing moisture/nutrient stress on large old ponderosa pines. Here in Alaska, I was around when spruce bark beetle began a run that seemed stoppable at first, but in retrospect, could have only been stopped by a succession of two or three cold winters...we never got them and some 90% of Kenai Peninsula spruce (and significant interior populations) were wiped out. I have had several conversations with Southwestern academics who are beginning to sense the migration of species to more appropriate latitudes, elevations. It's apparent that just a few degrees annual change in temperature has a surprisingly significant effect on a whole array of ecosystem constituents. -Don > Date: Mon, 1 Jun 2009 07:53:56 -0500 > From: [email protected] > To: [email protected] > Subject: [ENTS] Re: ENTS in the news > > > Bob, Don: > > Whitebark pine forests/woodlands are having a set complex set of > problems. White pine blister rust (an exotic disease), mountain pine > beetle (a native beetle that is in outbreak phase in many forests), and > changing climate all at once. This is affecting the relationship between > white bark pine and lodegepole pine as well, perhaps the beetle, blister > rust and droughts are helping the lodgepole to move into whitebark's > territory, while lower down the beetle is causing major mortality in > lodgepole and ponderosa pines. I am on the committees of three graduate > students who are studying whitebark pine and other high elevation > forests in the Rocky Mountains, and two of them will finish soon, so you > will see several papers on this topic be published in the next couple of > years. > > Lee > > > [email protected] wrote: > > > > Don, > > > > > > > > As best as I remember from my travels last summer to Idaho, the > > white bark pine was having problems in parts of Wyoming. But, I mostly > > saw lodgepole pine and wasn't always conscious when there was a mix of > > the two species. > > > > I'll get up to altitudes of 11,000 to almost 11,500 feet going > > across some of the Colorado passes. In southern Colorado, the > > timberline is between 11,500 and 12,000 feet. So, I should see plenty > > of high elevation forests and will dutifully report on what I see. I > > remember from 3 years ago going across Wolf Creek Pass in the San > > Juans seeing lots of beetle damage to ponderosa pines. Pines I had > > seen in the mid-1980s were dead. It was a sad sight. > > > > BTW, I'll be tracking my emails on the trip with my IPhone. I broke > > down and bought one, and so far, I love it. Apple has really thought > > through the features. Most are intuitive and even though the monitor > > is small, I can still see it. You can expand the print in a simple way. > > > > > > > > Bob > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "DON BERTOLETTE" <[email protected]> > > To: [email protected] > > Sent: Sunday, May 31, 2009 5:06:02 PM GMT -05:00 US/Canada Eastern > > Subject: [ENTS] Re: ENTS in the news > > > > Bob- > > In the west in general and surely in Colorado, the media I attend to > > describes the plight of the high elevation forests, particularly the > > pines, in (what our fellow forum member Steve Springer denies) at > > least a severe prolonged drought, and perhaps one of the signs of > > global climate change. Gradient analysis may not benefit much of the > > eastern forest, but for the western forests where a watershed may > > contain an entire elevational gradient, forests are differentially > > subject to moisture stress, and are showing higher mortality than > > would be found in the natural range of variation. > > If your travels take you into the higher elevations where whitebark > > pines are found, I'd be interested in a first hand account of their > > general health. The high elevation pines I've followed in the high > > Sierras (foxtail, bristlecone, whitebark, sugar, western white) are > > taking a hit, with potential catastrophy waiting with each monsoonal > > wave of lightning storms, due to increased downed and coarse woody debris. > > > > In two weeks, I'll be assisting a friend in nominating a Kenai Birch > > for the Alaska Register, and since the National Register doesn't list > > one, perhaps we'll be nominating a National champion! > > -Don > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------ > > > > Date: Sun, 31 May 2009 19:38:23 +0000 > > From: [email protected] > > To: [email protected] > > Subject: [ENTS] Re: ENTS in the news > > > > Don, > > > > The day will come when AFs will be lauding the Pennsylvania and > > Alaska champion tree programs - and for good reason. Well, tomorrow, > > it is off to Colorado Monica and I go. I hope to report from the field > > as I go. > > > > Bob > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > From: "DON BERTOLETTE" <[email protected]> > > To: [email protected] > > Sent: Sunday, May 31, 2009 12:05:04 AM GMT -05:00 US/Canada Eastern > > Subject: [ENTS] ENTS in the news > > > > Fellow ENTS- > > Just received the current American Forests, and saving the best for > > last, they had a great article applauding Bob Van Pelt's (and ours > > too!) obsession with champion trees...it's a good read! > > -Don > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------ > > > > Hotmail® has ever-growing storage! Don’t worry about storage limits. > > Check it out. > > <http://windowslive.com/Tutorial/Hotmail/Storage?ocid=TXT_TAGLM_WL_HM_Tutorial_Storage1_052009> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------ > > Windows Live™: Keep your life in sync. 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