Gentlefolk,

<< That puts launch costs between $25/lb and $100/lb to LEO.  Anyone think 
that's
feasible?>>

I've seen curves that run down to those kinds of costs at large mission 
models.  I think you start to get in that ballpark when the cost of the fuel 
becomes significant with respect to the other costs.  Let's say a ten-ton RLV 
has a ten ton payload and a mass ratio of 15, for 300 ton liftoff weight, of 
which 280 tons are fuel.  At $1000/ton ($1/liter) that's $280,000, 
$28,000/ton, $28/kg  (about $13/lb) of payload for fuel alone.  If the 
production model costs $100,000,000 off the line and is good for 1000 take 
offs and landings, thats another $100,000 per mission, $10,000 per ton, 
$10/kg.  If lifetime maintenance is comparable to vehicle costs, another 
$10/kg.   Other operating costs would likely be in the $10/kg area as well, 
so we'd be looking at circa $60/kg direct costs.  Double that for overhead 
and return on investment (where one recoups development costs), and charge 
$120/kg, or circa $12k for a paying passenger (I've seen some models as low 
as $5k).  The big driver here, assuming the aforesaid vehicle can be built) 
is the number of missions the vehicle can fly, and the biq question is 
whether you have enough demand to do all those flights in a reasonable time.  

--Best, Gerald

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