On Thu, Aug 05, 2004 at 05:50:45PM -0500, John Carmack wrote:
> I'm a little irate about the DVP press. The idea that they are announcing
> an X-Prize flight without having made a single solitary test flight is just
> absurd. The "flight testing" that they still talk about on their web site
> was microcosm's testing of systems that DVP was originally intending to
> use, but they aren't even using those any more. I suppose that they have
> an obligation to their sponsors to maximize media coverage, but it just
> strikes me as dishonest.
>
> John Carmack
I wouldn't characterize my response as "irate" - I'm skeptical that
their first flight will not have issues, but I can see from their
standpoint that with SS1 flying the 29th, they have to announce and go
whether they've done all the testing they want to or not. Yes, they're
very cocky about the reliability. If they are wrong it will cost them
- maybe even cost them a life. But remember there were several people
trying for the Orteig Prize (and dying) before Lindberg made his
flight. Burt Rutan, himself, has said he expects someone to get killed
attempting the X-Prize. I had hoped he was wrong on that - that "test
to reliability" would be important enough to all teams that we only had
seasoned vehicles flying, but I'm not in charge and I doubt people
will listen anyway. Ask the AusRoc II team about overconfidence and
public failure. Brian may not have learned yet that things need to be
tested exhaustively.
While I'd like him to succeed, he does have the option to choose to
fly without what "we" consider sufficient testing. My experience has
been that success is an inverse bell curve - if the chances of success
aren't pretty close to 1 they WILL be very close to 0. My suspicion is
that Brian and his team will learn that the hard way. My hope is that
they learn it without loss of life. Either way, it's his decision to
go and I can't argue that he be "stopped" if he feels the vehicle is
ready. He's in a much better position to know - and as the pilot, he's
the one who's life will be on the line. I can comment and advise that
he "should" do more testing and verify all systems in a flight test
before going for it, but that's all I can do - advise. The decision is
his to make, no matter how crazy *I* thing the decision is.
Michael
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Michael Wallis KF6SPF (408) 396-9037 [EMAIL PROTECTED]
"And I keep praying that this faith we hold in common keeps showing up
in the good things we do, and that people recognize Christ in all of
it." Philemon 1:6
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