Kalau di 'translate' kan bisa beda arti, jadi disajikan yang aslinya. Wong para hadirin disini sudah jago-jago berbahasa Inggris kok. Bahkan banyak yang menguasai tiga bahasa : Indonesia, Inggris dan dan bahasa daerah.
--- Prianto Tirto Prodjo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Please translate so that everybody understands what > the news is. Thank you. > Tolong diterjemahkan dalam bahasa Indonesia agar > semua mengerti berita tersebut, terima kasih. > > -----Original Message----- > From: [email protected] > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Behalf Of > Winaldi Mustajab > Sent: Friday, July 21, 2006 11:21 PM > To: [email protected] > Subject: [exbe2de] Analisa: Israel - Hezbollah > > > > WASHINGTON - As Israel continues to strike > inside Lebanon in a bid to rout Hizbullah, the > radical > Islamist group is using two weapons to wage war: > rockets and, more effective, TV images of civilian > destruction inflicted by Israeli bombs. > > The latter "weapon," broadcast over the > Hizbullah-run > TV station Al Manar to pump up Arab sympathies, may > in > the end be more powerful than Israel's military > punch > - a counterpunch to Israel's assertion it can crush > Hizbullah through use of force. > > Though Israel has eroded the militant group's > ability > to inflict harm, Hizbullah may in fact be pleased > with > the results of the violent crisis it touched off > over > a week ago. Its position in the area - as a > service-provider in a longtime stateless zone and as > a > vent for Arab anger and disappointment over dashed > economic and political hopes - remains secure, many > experts say. > > Under this scenario, analysts add, Hizbullah is here > to stay - at least for the indefinite future. > > Military force, no matter how overwhelming, simply > can't be counted on to crush the militants, they > say. > It might even be what they want. > > "Since many terrorist groups are caught up in > notions > of cosmic war - grand struggles of religious > dimensions - they in fact welcome overt warfare > since > it vindicates their views of the war, a war whose > timelines are very long," says Mark Juergensmeyer, a > specialist in "new terrorism" at the University of > California at Santa Barbara, who visited Lebanon > just > before bombs began to fall. "A siege is exactly what > they want - it keeps them motivated." > > Military force has successfully eradicated radical > groups in the past, but under very different > circumstances. The Maoist Shining Path organization > that dominated and terrorized parts of Peru in the > 1980s was finally obliterated by relentless > search-and-destroy missions and long-term > imprisonment > of leaders. > > But perhaps the key factor was not the military > campaign but the evolution of South America. Shining > Path was doomed by the waning of radical thinking in > a > decreasingly ideological region. > > That is not the case in the Middle East, where > radical > Islam, religious nationalism, and "jihadism" are on > the rise - witness the electoral victory of Hamas in > the Palestinian territories, Hizbullah's rise > through > elections to a minority role in the Lebanese > government, and the tenacious popularity of the > Muslim > Brotherhood in Egypt. > > "Hizbullah is particularly deep-rooted, and the > Hamas > government [in the Palestinian territories] is a > fixture for some time to come, so they have to be > seen > as factors that are here to stay, at least for the > medium to long term," says Mahan Abedin, an expert > in > radical Islamic groups at the Center for the Study > of > Terrorism and Political Violence in London. > > What Israel can accomplish through its military > campaign, others say, is a weakening of Hizbullah's > ability to strike Israeli territory with missiles > and > rockets. But even that effort, they add, comes with > collateral risks. > > "Can Israel considerably reduce the threat posed by > Hizbullah as a paramilitary group? That it can > probably do," says Brian Michael Jenkins, a > terrorism > expert at the Rand Corp. in Arlington, Va. "But will > Israel be able to destroy Hizbullah in terms of its > identity, the determination of its leadership, the > devotion of its followers, and their dedication to > continuing the struggle? No, that's not realistic." > > The US has some experience with that reality in its > pursuit of Al Qaeda, he says. While cautioning > against > "lumping together" radical Islamic groups, Jenkins > says the US has made progress in undermining Al > Qaeda's operational capabilities. On the other hand, > he cautions, the US has been less successful at > reducing the appeal of Al Qaeda's message, which > "continues to radicalize and deepen the zeal of > large > numbers of young Islamic men." > > Turning to the US experience in Iraq, Jenkins > sees a trajectory that mirrors Israel's. "There is > no > military challenge in Iraq that can defeat us," he > says. "But has our presence reduced a radicalization > of parts of the population or pacified the country? > No > it hasn't." > > Even if Israel destroys 80 percent of Hizbullah's > arsenal - estimated at more than 12,000 rockets - > the > supply could be replenished within four months, says > Mr. Abedin. Iran, Hizbullah's chief supplier, > is capable of manufacturing 10,000 rockets a month > of > the types Hizbullah is using, he says. "The best > Israel may be able to achieve is to make it more > difficult for Hizbullah to receive the armament and > use it in the future." > > Beyond that, Israel's aim is to "impose on the > region > its military hegemony, and to impress its enemies," > Abedin says. "It's showing Iran it is capable of > this > kind of sustained military campaign." > > That will not reduce the long-term threat from the > Islamist movement opposing Israel, he says. > "Whenever > the Israelis use disproportionate force they > strengthen their enemies and rally popular support > [for them]. The fact Israel hasn't learned this > lesson," he adds, "is quite extraordinary." > > Jenkins, who has a military background, sees the > same > dilemma posed by short-term necessities and > long-term > interests. "Right now, Israel's primary obligation > is > to end the barrage of rockets and mortars coming > into > its territory," he says. "But they should also > understand that accomplishing that will not do much > to > advance - and can even complicate - what is, after > all, a long-term political fight." > > For countries facing this challenge, a priority is > "to > broaden strategies to be far more effective at > political warfare," says Jenkins. In some cases > "negotiations are in order," he says, noting that > the > British negotiated with the IRA and the Spanish with > the radical Basque group ETA. The Iraqi government > is > signalling its willingness to talk with part of the > insurgency (the more traditionally political > opposition, not the Al Qaeda-inspired forces). > > In the long run, military campaigns won't be the > answer, most analysts agree. "There may be military > battles that have to be fought," says Jenkins, "but > the real answer is to focus more on how to diminish > the appeal of the radical message." > > === message truncated === __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around http://mail.yahoo.com ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Check out the new improvements in Yahoo! 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