TimH wrote: > I look around, and come to the conclusion that > Linux is mainstream. Everybody > has at least heard the name, and many people > even consider looking at it to > replace current systems. Hell, the NYSE is > switching to it. Every ISP I > have ever used has made heavy use of BSD. open > Source is there and in the > minds of the people in the know. That's where > it should be.
BSD brings up an interesting point raised in the interview mentioned here earlier: Even BSD credits Linux with _driving_ the industry. The more open source software, the better for BSD also. Closed source Linux software doesn't help BSD, and funny enough, often doesn't work well for Linux either. I see Linux as having won battles merely by slow but unstoppable growth. 3 years ago: Linux on the server was 'uncommon'. It really wasn't, it was already in many places, but the public perception was "Oh, you run Linux? Wow, how does that work." You didn't see IBM, Dell and others mentioning Linux in the _same_ page with NT. Now Linux is on the same _line_ as an equal. I see Linux on the desktop as the current 'battle' and you know what? It's not really a battle... It's just a slow moving wave. Linux will be in people's home soon enough. It already is in some, and given enough time, it'll be in the rest. Nobody is fighting it, except for Microsoft's PR dept. I think even Microsoft has given up the battle, and is retreating... they won't admit it, but the slow wave and the trend lines has made them make more and more decisions that make _no_ sense, unless you look at it as a lost cause where they are committed to riding out the wave and generating as much cashflow as possible. Why on Earth would you charge all of your customers more, given the whole monopoly issue, unless you know that you are losing customers anyway, and that raising prices X percent will lose you only Y percent customer base, of which Z percent would leave anyway. The trend is clear: Microsoft is wanting to fight for the server market, with the .Net stuff. Even industry analysts are badmouthing WinXP, and saying that .Net is a vaporware... they are retreating to the jeers of the industry which empowered them to start with... > I really don't > care if John and Jane family PC is running it. > What I can't stand is idiots > who can't even update their NT boxes to avoid a > very public worm. I finally setup my cable modem to track incoming port 80 stuff... amazing how many boxes are still infected. > But if it weren't for those losers, we > wouldn't look as smart as we do, so > they are good for something. The majority view > is almost always the ignorant > view. If I find myself in the majority, I > assume I have made a mistake. God > bless the lunatic fringe! I think, therefor > I'm dangerous! heehe, too true. Way too true. Bob wrote: > > I am sometimes concerned about the opposite > happening -- that only > > hippies and weirdos will use open source/free > software. I thought > > Linux was going to go mainstream, but now I'm > not so sure... > > > > I want Linux to go mainstream. I want > Windows to be the fringe OS. I'm predicting it's about 3 years away. I mean that in 3 years, running Linux on the desktop will be a natural given. In 1 year, you will see more and more people looking at the option, given the choice of XP or Linux. Some will choose XP, some not. I suspect a large majority of users will continue to use XP, until things go horribly wrong (virus, attacks, etc) and more will reconsider Linux, which will in the meantime have flowered even more into the complete solution people _expect_ (and don't get) out of the box from a computer. In 2 years, Linux will be an 'also' choice, with more and more games and comsumer products having Linux versions, sheerly because the market share demands that someone address them. I.E. Quicken for Linux. Which not sooner? Because they will ignore the market until it's not ignorable any longer. However, it will also be a lost cause for MOST of the major software vendors who expect to enter the Linux market, as the niche will be filled with free software first. GnuCash, etc. Game vendors and other freshmarkets with something new are already starting to move toward Linux... The 'big' boys (Oracle, etc) are already here. I doubt the shareware market will transfer over well, most moving to a more open source approach, if they are interesting in Linux/BSD) Macwill continue to grow, but the BSD nature of OSX will mean that more users end up running X apps, and in return X apps will start to get some user interface upgrades. Documentation needs to GROW. That is the one area most lacking at this point. It falls far short compared to the growth of the software itself. and lastly, as a User Group, we don't still see _half_ of the Linux in this town. I learned about a number of Linux shops in town that I had no clue existed at the expo. So take whatever numbers you have about people running Linux and multiply by at least 1.5... Why didn't any of us know about the bike shop before the article? Seth __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Make a great connection at Yahoo! Personals. http://personals.yahoo.com
