I should clarify: when I said that Sep 11 cast a shadow over
the prospects for cheap (unmanned) space launch schemes,
I never meant to suggest that *I* thought this was a big
deal.  Only that many people would be inclined to think so.
In a democracy, what many people think (rightly or not) makes
a difference.

Take North Korea. (Please!)  Look at all the anxiety over
their budding nuke capability, and their missile technology.
Not unreasonable, on the face of it.   We can't have an
unstable world awash in cheap ICBMs, can we?  Not
when they can deliver WMD, right?

But wait a minute -- only recently has it surfaced in the
western press that there's a ferry that's been plying
the seas between Niigata, Japan, and North Korea.
The news is mainly that these transits are now being
substantially impeded. But this ferry run has been
running trips every two weeks, quite openly, for a
very long time.

A few years back, some minor-party politicians made a
mini-media splash with their announcement that North
Koreans could take this ferry to Japan, take the
bullet train into Tokyo, take the regular train to
the Akihabara electronics district, and pick up
all kinds of useful parts, including GPS equipment.
And take it right back to North Korea, unmolested.
This was not long after a N. Korean missile test
lobbed a payload over Japan.  Interest in this kind
of thing seems to have subsided since then.

There are about 10,000 permanent residents of
Japan who hold North Korean passports.  They
send their children to schools whose classrooms
have portraits of Kim Jong Il hanging on the wall.
Many Japanese-Koreans operate pachinko parlors,
and in repatriating some of their yen earnings, the
North Korean passport-holders help supply the
North with a significant portion of its hard-currency
earnings.  From which, of course, much weapons
development can be funded.  And still, you can
see people lined up outside the pachinko parlors
in the morning here in Tokyo, waiting for them
to open.

The point is: why are we worried about cheap
access to orbit as a WMD threat?  Is it really
so hard to get WMD into a terrorist target country?
If North Korea wanted to nuke Tokyo, for
whatever stupid/evil reason, why wouldn't they
just set up a front business in some neighborhood
(or use one of the many they already own)
and smuggle components into it?

When it comes down to it, most "rogue states"
(or "states of concern" as Madeleine Albright
recast the term) however roguish, are investing
in launch technologies for a reason that's
plausibly legitimate: cheap deterrence.  I've read that
one reason why the North Korean government
is interested in nukes and missiles is so that
they can start melting down their huge army,
(their only certain deterrent at the moment)
and start developing a real economy.  Well,
why not test them on that claim?  Tell them:
"Actually, we'll start buying up every missile
you can make that isn't deployed for deterrent
purposes, provided you meet numerical targets
for standing-army force reduction and open up
for foreign direct investment.  If you make good
faith efforts for long enough, we'll even start
helping you technologically.  How will we dispose
of your cheap missiles?  Well, we've got lots
of engineering students in the U.S. who would
love to be putting various little test packages
in space, like CubeSat, but who can't do it very
often because the costs of launch are so high."

-michael turner
[EMAIL PROTECTED]


----- Original Message -----
From: "John Sheff" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Wednesday, September 10, 2003 12:34 AM
Subject: RE: mass drivers for earth-to-orbit cargo lift (was Re: SPACE: Loss
of the Satur


>
> Yep. That's what worked for Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. It got them
> into the rocket launching business ...
>
> John Sheff
> 12 Inman Street #64
> Cambridge, MA 02139
> 617-547-1353
> [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Behalf Of
Reeve,
> Jack W.
> Sent: Tuesday, September 09, 2003 11:01 AM
> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Subject: RE: mass drivers for earth-to-orbit cargo lift (was Re: SPACE:
Loss
> of the Satur
>
>
> The best launch platform for any significant space exploration venture is
a
> safe and secure country buffered by an integrated intelligence and
military
> community rendered supremely capable and thoughtfully marshaled
> internationally, thereby moving the theater of conflict between ourselves
> and those who wish our version of existence harm well away from our
shores,
> our homes and our children.
>
> Seems to me that said military is extremely good at it, and that said
intel
> community is fast catching up to the military's peerless example.
>
> Oh, and said launch platform is priceless.
>
> Jack W. Reeve
>
>
>
>
> ==
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