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Home > Columnists > Jerry Flint
Backseat Driver
Big Three Blowing Hot Air
Jerry Flint, 08.12.02, 8:00 AM ET
It was 30 years or so ago--and I missed a story.
The vice chairman of Ford Motor was dedicating an arboretum
in Ann Arbor, Mich., and I skipped it. Arjay Miller chose
this event to say that Ford would mass-produce an electric
car within five to ten years. Hot news and I missed it.
My competitor splashed it on page 1--and I was angry. I
jokingly called this future electric car "the Arjay Straight
Eight" and predicted that in his next arboretum speech Arjay
Miller would announce "the electric tree."
Of course, Ford's target date for the introduction of its
electric car continued to slip into the future. At one point
Ted Mecke, a Ford vice president, told me: "Jerry, you don't
understand: This is a running target. It is always five to
ten years off."
[...]
Then I figured it out.
In terms of fuel-economy/earth-warming publicity, GM is far
behind the competition. Its electric car, the EV-1, which
cost $1 billion to build--but found only 700 customers--was
a total failure. Who would want a car with a range of less
than 100 miles?
Meanwhile, in Europe, millions of cars have higher-mileage
diesel engines. But even over there GM and Ford's European
operations are far behind the leaders in diesel technology
(PSA--i.e., Peugeot/Citroen, BMW, VW and Mercedes all have
great diesel motors).
In both Japan and America, Toyota and Honda are years ahead
of Detroit in hybrid (electric plus gasoline) power trains.
The two Japanese manufacturers already have 35,000 hybrid
cars on American roads.
[...]
Detroit is getting a terrible black eye on the green scene.
Except for [...] Ford's plans to eventually build some
Escape sport utility models with Japanese hybrid technology,
the domestic manufacturers have little to brag about to
environmentalists.
[...]
The truth is that Detroit has good reasons for its slow
response:
1. Diesels are quite popular in Europe, but won't meet
future U.S. emission standards--that is, unless the oil
companies get sulfur out of diesel fuel. The oil
companies are resisting this change (with Bush
Administration backing), so it is not surprising that
Detroit doesn't want to invest billions in engines that
may not be usable after just a few years.
2. Hybrid power plants work but they don't make economic
sense. The Japanese hybrid cars that get 50 miles per
gallon probably would get 35 mpg with ordinary small
gasoline engines. The hybrids are expensive to build,
because making a car with two engines--gasoline and
electric-- costs more than making a conventional car. The
Japanese charge $20,000 a vehicle and probably are
absorbing large losses on each unit they sell.
The big problem in the U.S. is all the pickups and SUVs that
get 16 miles per gallon. Hybrids, alas, improve efficiency
only 10% to 12%, which might sound large but works out to
only one to two miles per gallon for the bigger trucks. In
order to save $100 to $150 worth of fuel a year, is it worth
spending an extra $3,000 to $5,000 for a hybrid engine
system?
In previous columns I wrote, "no, it wasn't worth it." But
losing the public relations war is another story.
GM knows this. That's why the company reinstated plans to
build a hybrid pickup truck. The project was killed but it
has been revived. GM needs something in the propaganda war,
especially if Ford is going to have its hybrid Escape.
I think that the domestic manufacturers need to build some
modern turbo- diesel vehicles and electric/internal
combustion hybrids with either gasoline or turbo-diesel
engines. Such products might not make much economic sense
but would show the American public that Detroit is serious
about the environment and fuel economy.
In this war it is also important to win hearts and minds.
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