What percentage of households can charge at home? I don't know the
answer but would guess it's somewhere in the 60% range. That leaves
quite a few who will have to find charging stations once in a while.
What is the current distribution of filling stations, grouping into
those along freeways and major highways and those that aren't? Again, I
have no figures on this. My observation, locally, is that there are
more gas stations along I5 between Seattle and Tacoma than there are in
the entire city of Seattle. It's hard to know, though, how many of them
are being used to supply local trips.
In short, I think you're right - we'll see a reduction in filling
stations and a lesser replacement by charging stations. I wouldn't go
so far as to say charging stations will be sparse compared to today's
filling stations, though.
Peri
------ Original Message ------
From: "Ben Goren" <[email protected]>
To: "Peri Hartman" <[email protected]>; "Electric Vehicle Discussion
List" <[email protected]>
Sent: 23-Jan-15 4:28:20 PM
Subject: Re: [EVDL] 100 new level 3 chargers for busy corridors
On Jan 23, 2015, at 3:50 PM, Peri Hartman via EV <[email protected]>
wrote:
The current infrastructure will be outdated within 10 years. Maybe
sooner.
It's a very safe bet that the overwhelming majority of EVs now and
forever will be slow-charged at home or work or in parking lots or at
the fleet depot.
As such, and since we've already got multiple EVs on the market with at
least a few hundred miles of range...I'm not sure I foresee any future
charging infrastructure as being anywhere near as ubiquitous as gas
stations are today. There'll likely be rest stations with charging
points every hundred miles or so along the interstates, with a few
extras at the peripheries of cities near the interstates...and even
those might not be all that much more than standard 220 dryer outlets.
The only people needing on-the-road charging will be those going on
long-distance trips, after all. Everybody else is going to be charging
at home overnight and leaving in the morning on their 50-mile-each-way
commute with 300 miles in the battery, and almost never go near that
last 200 miles of range. And who drives 300 miles without a potty
break? And so on.
We "need" such infrastructure today with the typical EV having a range
of less than 100 miles, sometimes much less. Once Tesla's 250-mile
range is standard for a generic Detroit econobox, that need all but
vanishes.
I would not be investing in any form of EV charging infrastructure
other than the types that go in homes or other places where people
already park. That sort of thing is all but guaranteed to forever
remain a niche market, and who can predict what sorts of fads do and
don't catch on with those sorts of things?
Were I an investor, what I _would_ be looking at is creative things to
do with gas stations once they start going belly-up. Anything to be
done with those huge underground tanks? Maybe invest in businesses that
can remove them and clean up the mess they leave behind? And so on.
b&
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