> 
> On Mon, 18 Oct 1999, Russell Standish wrote:
> > >   Your above comments make no sense to me.  Perhaps you should
> > > attempt to clarify them.  I will say that you seem to have missed the
> > > point of the Bayesian analysis.  It is useful because the ASSA predicts
> > > that one is unlikely to observe a large age for oneself.  The fact that
> > > the ASSA does so is supremely obvious from the fact that at large ages the
> > > measure is smaller.
> > 
> > It is _not_ supremely obvious. The only thing that is obvious is what
> > it say about _external_ reality - i.e. it predicts one is unlikely to
> > see a large age for someone else. It says absolutely nothing about
> > what you observe about yourself.
> 
>       If I look at Joe Shmoe's age, why is it (with the ASSA) unlikely
> for me to see a large age?  Because the measure of Jack Mallahs that see
> that Joe Shmoe has a large age is small.
>       If I look at Jack Mallah's age, why is it (with the ASSA) unlikely
> for me to see a large age?  Because the measure of Jack Mallahs that see
> that Jack Mallah has a large age is small.
>       What's the difference?

The measure of Jack Mallah is irrelevant to this situation. The
probability of Jack Mallah seeing Joe Schmoe with a large age is
proportional to Joe Schmoe's measure - because - Joe Schmoe is
independent of Jack Mallah. However, Jack Mallah is clearly not
independent of Jack Mallah, and predictions of the probability of Jack
Mallah seeing a Jack Mallah with large age cannot be made with the
existing assumptions of ASSA. The claim is that RSSA has the
additional assumptions required.


> 
>                          - - - - - - -
>               Jacques Mallah ([EMAIL PROTECTED])
>        Graduate Student / Many Worlder / Devil's Advocate
> "I know what no one else knows" - 'Runaway Train', Soul Asylum
>             My URL: http://pages.nyu.edu/~jqm1584/
> 
> 



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Dr. Russell Standish                    Director
High Performance Computing Support Unit,
University of NSW                       Phone 9385 6967
Sydney 2052                             Fax   9385 6965
Australia                               [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Room 2075, Red Centre                   http://parallel.hpc.unsw.edu.au/rks
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