Hal,

It is possible that "miracles" will be as uncommon and surprising in your QTI-guaranteed future as they seem to be today. If you live to 1000, unlikely as it sounds at present, shouldn't you expect it to happen in the *least* unlikely way? This may involve advances in medicine initially, then when you are, say, 200 and terminally ill, mind uploading may finally become possible. Your best chance of these things happening is to live in a world where life-prolonging technology becomes generally available (or at least available to the wealthy, which is nothing new), so you are probably *not* going to be unique in living to a very advanced age. So, in answer to your question, finding yourself miraculously alive at 1000 while everyone else dies young would be something extremely unlikely and surprising, no less so if QTI is true, and therefore not evidence in its favour.

--Stathis Papaioannou

Let me pose the puzzle like this, which is a form we have discussed
before:

Suppose you found yourself extremely old, due to a near-miraculous set
of circumstances that had kept you alive.  Time after time when you were
about to die of old age or some other cause, something happened and you
were able to continue living.  Now you are 1000 years old in a world
where no one else lives past 120.  (We will ignore medical progress for
the purposes of this thought experiment.)

Now, one of the predictions of QTI is that in fact you will experience
much this state, eventually.  But the question is this: given that you
find yourself in this circumstances, is this fact *evidence* for the
truth of the QTI?  In other words, should people who find themselves
extremely old through miraculous circumstances take it as more likely
that the QTI is true?

Hal Finney


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