On Fri, Jun 17, 2005 at 11:02:01AM +1000, Russell Standish wrote: > Applying the SSA, the colour of the light when you first find yourself > in the room is more likely to be the high measure state than the low > measure state. (You didn't state what that colour was, but hopefully > the fictional prisoner can remember it).
The subjective duty cycle is 1:1. Because of the "their minds perfectly synchronized" constraint there's only one individuum. The number of instances doesn't matter, because they have no chance of experiencing anything else but what the sync master experiences. Unless I'm missing something there's no way to tell but to flip a coin, which gives you a 0.5 probability of being sent home. > With the RSSA, subsequent states tell you no information whatsoever > about which state is high measure. With the ASSA, you would expect > that the light remains in one state most of the time (googol out of > googol+1). So the fact that the light is alternating (and that you > trust that the letter is in fact true) implies that the ASSA does not > apply in this thought experiment. > > Cheers > > On Fri, Jun 17, 2005 at 12:12:59AM +1000, Stathis Papaioannou wrote: > > > > You find yourself in a locked room with no windows, and no memory of how > > you got there. The room is sparsely furnished: a chair, a desk, pen and > > paper, and in one corner a light. The light is currently red, but in the > > time you have been in the room you have observed that it alternates between > > red and green every 10 minutes. Other than the coloured light, nothing in > > the room seems to change. Opening one of the desk drawers, you find a piece > > of paper with incredibly neat handwriting. It turns out to be a letter from > > God, revealing that you have been placed in the room as part of a > > philosophical experiment. Every 10 minutes, the system alternates between > > two states. One state consists of you alone in your room. The other state > > consists of 10^100 exact copies of you, their minds perfectly synchronised > > with your mind, each copy isolated from all the others in a room just like > > yours. Whenever the light changes colour, it means that God is either > > instantaneously creating (10^100 - 1) copies, or instantaneously destroying > > all but one randomly chosen copy. > > > > Your task is to guess which colour of the light corresponds with which > > state and write it down. Then God will send you home. > > > > Having absorbed this information, you reason as follows. Suppose that right > > now you are one of the copies sampled randomly from all the copies that you > > could possibly be. If you guess that you are one of the 10^100 group, you > > will be right with probability (10^100)/(10^100+1) (which your calculator > > tells you equals one). If you guess that you are the sole copy, you will be > > right with probability 1/(10^100+1) (which your calculator tells you equals > > zero). Therefore, you would be foolish indeed if you don't guess that you > > in the 10^100 group. And since the light right now is red, red must > > correspond with the 10^100 copy state and green with the single copy state. > > > > But just as you are about to write down your conclusion, the light changes > > to green... > > > > What's wrong with the reasoning here? -- Eugen* Leitl <a href="http://leitl.org">leitl</a> ______________________________________________________________ ICBM: 48.07100, 11.36820 http://www.leitl.org 8B29F6BE: 099D 78BA 2FD3 B014 B08A 7779 75B0 2443 8B29 F6BE