Stathis wrote: >When you press the button in the torture room, there is a 50% >chance that your next moment will be in the same room and and >a 50% chance that it will be somewhere else where you won't be >tortured. However, this constraint has been added to the >experiment: suppose you end up the copy still in the torture >room whenever you press the button. After all, it is certain >that there will be a copy still in the room, however many >times the button is pressed. Should this unfortunate person >choose the coin toss instead?
If he shares your beliefs about identity, then if he changes his mind he will be be comitting the gambler's fallacy. However, after having pressed the button 100 times and with nothing to show for it except 100 tortures, his faith that he is a random observer might be shaken :). Jonathan Colvin