Le 21-juin-06, à 08:13, Lee Corbin a écrit :


>> BM: In that case I would say there is (at first sight) 999/1000 that 
>> in
>> next minute I will be the one send in the place P, so that in the 
>> "long
>> run", there is almost no chance I continue my normal life. I will be
>> upset.
> LC: I would say that you will continue your normal life, and you will
> also have a lot (too much) measure in the Martian penal colony.

I see what you mean and I agree with you,  but now,  you were again 
talking about third person description of  the first  person point of 
view (I will write 1-pov, 3-pov, ...). When I am saying there is almost 
no chance I continue my normal life, I was talking about my expectation 
for my future first person experience, not about an absolute 
3-description of where all my possible 1-pov will be realized. Of 
course, once the multiplication has been done, then normality resumes.

Each morning I am multiplied into a continuum of Bruno Marchal drinking 
cups of coffee, and by the quantum rule (or just comp actually) there 
exist 1-pov where my coffee tastes tea. Despite this the relative 
probability of such personal events are rare, and I don't take them 
into account in my expectations.

>> BM: Then there is a high objective probability that I will find myself
>> subjectively in Hell after some trips, but if you keep interviewing 
>> the
>> one who is reconstituted in Washington, obviously he will tell us
>> everything is fine, given that by construction, you interview the 
>> lucky
>> one. Those in Hell knows your reasoning is unconvincing.  You are 
>> doing
>> statistic with a biased sample.
> LC: I agree. But on the other hand, if all the others get 72 virgins, 
> then
> that is a favorable outcome for you---or as we would say on this list,
> the measure of the favorable observer moments dominates.

All right (assuming I am happy with 72 virgins which I think is a bit 
too much :). In that case the right sample will make me bet, BEFORE the 
multiplication, that I have a high probability to get the 72 virgins. 



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