> I guess what I am on about is a bit closer to the 80s idea of "chaos" > - something that is inherently unpredictable; at least if you adopt > the stance of always launching your prediction from a single present - > the one you happen to find yourself in.
I think you mean randomness, not chaos. Chaos theory deals with deterministic systems that vary widely in result based on small changes in initial starting conditions; these systems are 100% predictable. > Isn't this kind of like an act of faith? No. Faith isn't based on evidence. When we use math to model things in reality, we do so empirically. If a distribution doesn't fit after testing it, we don't use it to model that set of data, for example. How we use math functionally is different from math itself. > If we could perfectly model where things are heading then > please tell me why all the BTSOAPs of the dismal science of the > economics world could not arrange a more stable financial future for > us than the one we are currently moving into? The problem with (for example) economic forecasts is not that the mathematics is flawed; the math is fine. It's the data collection that's flawed. We have access to incomplete and imperfect information with which to make predictions, so we're occasionally wrong. That's exactly what happened with the banking system in the US, actually...they tried to use mathematical models developed on responsible lendees to apply to other lendees who were much less likely to pay back the bank, and after a while the amount of fail exceeded the ability of banks to handle it. I think you're forming a straw man of mathematics, because I don't think that math does all the things you're suggesting. Mathematics is not the science of fitting math to the natural world, and flaws in the latter don't suggest a fundamental incompleteness (Godel aside) to the former. Anna --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To post to this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
