On 01 Apr 2011, at 00:58, Russell Standish wrote:

On Thu, Mar 31, 2011 at 02:52:44PM +0200, Bruno Marchal wrote:

It is here that if we apply Bayes' theorem (like in the Doomday
argument), we should be astonished not being already very old (from
our first person perspective). But Bayes cannot be applied in this
setting, as we have already discussed a lot in the past.

Bruno Marchal


Superficially, this seems to be a very succinct form of Mallah's
argument. You're basically saying that given I'm Russell Standish, and
QTI, why don't I find myself arbitrarily far removed from the origin
(my birth).

Applying some form of ASSA (which makes no sense, imo).



Of course, the objections to this are obvious, and have been discussed
before in this list. The above doomsday argument assumes a linear
sequence of OMs that characterise "Russell Standish", which cannot be
the case in a Multiverse (required for QTI). Sampling of Russell
Standish observer moments must be over all OMs that were born Russell
Standish, and weighted by the universal prior, giving more weight to
being a baby than an adult.

Why am I not a baby?

What is the universal prior?



Now all we need is for Mallah to admit that the above is not a
strawman, and we're done. ASSA vs RSSA can be put in the dustbin :).

RSSA too? It is used in both QM and comp. But in wikipedia I have seen a definition of SSA much restrictive than the one used in this list. I prefer to keep on with the first-person indeterminacy instead of "RSSA".

-- Bruno




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http://iridia.ulb.ac.be/~marchal/



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