On 02 Dec 2012, at 19:56, Stephen P. King wrote:
On 12/2/2012 1:31 PM, meekerdb wrote:On 12/2/2012 12:56 AM, Stephen P. King wrote:On 12/1/2012 11:23 PM, meekerdb wrote:On 12/1/2012 6:42 PM, Stephen P. King wrote:On 12/1/2012 9:18 PM, meekerdb wrote:On 12/1/2012 5:50 PM, Stephen P. King wrote:a) Polar ice melt is not the only source of sea level rise. Thermal expansion is a big contributor.On 12/1/2012 7:19 PM, Russell Standish wrote:"Scientists Peg Sea Level Rise from Polar Ice Melt at 11.1 Millimeters Since 1992". http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=scientists-measure-sea-rise-from-poOn Sat, Dec 01, 2012 at 09:03:35AM -0500, Roger Clough wrote:As I understand it, state of the art understanding has it that the Milankovitch cycle is the initial cause of the cyclic variation in glaciation, is not sufficient in itself to generate the temperature variation. Rather, various positive feedbacks amplify the Milankovitch cycle into the large glaciation cycle. That would also explain why theHi Russell Standish Be that as it may, even a study over the last millenium would be based on inadequate data compared to the data from the Vostok ice cores. The hockey stick data used by Gore and others could possibly be a real change, but it pales in comparison: http://www.daviesand.com/Choices/Precautionary_Planning/New_Data/so there is some undetermined cause of these cycles which occurred long before the automobile or industrial production. There is a theory based on earth's inclination or wobble called the mikhailovich cycle, but the periodicity, although close, doesn't match.period doesn't match exactly.My own belief (not original) is that the CO2 is expelled and redissolved from the vast reservoir of the oceans as temperature varies. C)2 is much more soluble in cold water.Yes, that would another +ve feedback. But a rather minor one, Isuspect. A 2-5 degree temperature variation out of 300 degrees (room temperature on the Kelvin scale) doesn't sound like it would change CO2 solubility by much. By contrast, we've seen a near doubling of CO2concentration since preindustrial times, which doesn't seem explainable from ocean temperature trends.So why is the arctic ice melting but in contrast only meltingslightly at the southern pole ?Well, it is melting a bit more than slightly in Antarctica, mostly in the Antarctic peninsula. Many of the glaciers in West Antarctica haveaccelerated, just as they have in Greenland. By contrast, East Antarctica seems stable, which is just as well for us humans.In the arctic, there is a strong +ve feedback from the fact that openocean has lower albedo, so absorbs more sunlight during summer,heating the ocean, and preventing buildup of ice during Winter. By contrast at the South Pole, the ice sheet is some 3km thick - it will be a long time indeed before the ice has melted enough for the albedoeffect to start accelerating things.It may be related to El Nino and La Ninja, which are unevenly distributed. I believe El Nino (which is associagted with warming and is now present) is the cause of north pole melting.El Nino is associated with warming of the ocean off South America, andcorresponding cooling of the Coral sea. It causes droughts inEastern Australia, and rain in Chile. La Nina is the reverse situation. It causes a lot of rain here in Australia, and somewhat cooler weather. I thought we were still in La Nina (we had a lot of rain last year), but I see the current value of the ENSO index is neutral - neither El Ninonor La Nina.I would assume that polar warming would be more influenced by the Artic Oscillation than ENSO. I'm not sure how connected the AO is to theENSO. But, I don't claim any expertise in these matters :)What is the panic about?b) Every reasonable projection of polar melting indicates it will be accelerating, melting at an increasing, not a constant, rate.c) Sea level has gone up 200mm since 1900. Total rise is projected to be around 0.8m by 2100 AND STILL RISING FAST. If the Antarctic ice sheet melts sea level will rise about 60m. But even one meter makes a big difference to low coastal regions in a storm, e.g. New York, New Orleans, Bangladesh,...d) Weather patterns are likely to change much faster than flora, fauna, and maybe even people can adapt, resulting in worldwide crop failures and famine.Brent --The sky is falling, the sky is falling!" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henny_PennyMockery doesn't change the facts. Brent --Hi Brent, http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/06/13/1015619108.abstractWe present new sea-level reconstructions for the past 2100 y based on salt-marsh sedimentary sequences from the US Atlantic coast. The data from North Carolina reveal four phases of persistent sea- level change after correction for glacial isostatic adjustment. Sea level was stable from at least BC 100 until AD 950. Sea level then increased for 400 y at a rate of 0.6 mm/y, followed by a further period of stable, or slightly falling, sea level that persisted until the late 19th century. Since then, sea level has risen at an average rate of 2.1 mm/y, representing the steepest century-scale increase of the past two millennia. This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892. Using an extended semiempirical modeling approach, we show that these sea-level changes are consistent with global temperature for at least the past millennium.Interesting, since when is "modeling" considered a means to obtain facts. Facts are stubborn things... The problem is that a few facts are being used to push an addenda of control and "governance". Are you OK with that? I truly would like to understand the thought process involved.The facts are that we're putting a lot of CO2 into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuel. It's accumulating there as confirmed by direct measurement. CO2 is a "green-house" gas as known from laboratory measurements of absorption spectra. Models are use to make predictions from facts. In this case the prediction is that the Earth will get warmer. Warmer means more ice melts and water expands. It also means the oceans become more acidic. Which of these do you disagree with?That sea level or temperature or CO2 concentration may have gone up or down for some other known or unknown reason is irrelevant. To argue such is like putting another blanket on your bed and then thinking, "I must be hot because the thermostat is set too high, because last time I was too hot it was because the thermostat was set too high."http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_denial BrentSo our existence at the current level is "bad' and we are to revert back to some primitive non-tech version and be happy. OK. Proceed there without me. I am not interested in telling you how to live your life, just respect my basic human rights: Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of happiness. The climate alarmist are busy inventing new reasons that I cannot have even these and you seem to be OK with that! Why?I am interested in advancing technology and understanding such that, maybe, this constant panic and obsessive compulsive need to control everything is mitigated. Why can't people just be happy and live their lives w/o having to constantly invent "good reasons" to get into everyone's business??? IMHO, all this climate change stuff is just a reharsh of Malthusian thinking and the very idea of criminalizing disenting opinions, well... What a wonderful way to impose tyranny!
You might be right, I am not sure. Then, the fear sellers did not need the climate change for imposing tyranny: food and drug works already very well. (Cf Obama and the NDAA).
And they might be related, as Henry Ford said already in before 1930, "--why use petrol and steel for doing car, when we can build them entirely using Hemp, which can be renewed each year?". The possible climate change might be a consequence of the lies on paper, steel, medication, oil, etc.
The deeper problem might be education, which get worst more or less since Nixon, almost everywhere. People are not encouraged to think by themselves. they still need leader, hero, etc. It is old social mammal genes in play. We are apes with atomic bomb, which confuse p -> q and q -> p, all the time.
As long as cannabis is illegal, you can be sure that politics is biased in the favor of lying minorities. Corporatist club are NOT person, contrary to what Romney said recently. We should implement differently politics, so that we can separate it from special interests. Not an easy task. May be we should vote for programs, and politicians should be anonymous citizen doing some social service for a fixed period. Something like that.
Bruno
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