On Sun, Nov 10, 2013 at 10:05 PM, meekerdb <meeke...@verizon.net> wrote:
> On 11/10/2013 12:29 PM, Telmo Menezes wrote:
> As I said before, I am agnostic on this issue for the following reasons:
> - I am not educated in climate science and I am sufficiently educated
> in science to understand that it would take years of full-time effort
> to get to a point where I could judge the merit of climate science
> research findings by myself -- even there I would probably have to
> become an insider, because I understand that a lot of key data is
> never made publicly available;
> - I am sufficiently knowledgable of complex systems to be skeptical of
> the predictive power of any complex systems model at our current level
> of sophistication;
> - The issue became so heavily politicised that it is basically not
> reasonable to trust news reporting on either side of it.
> I am aware of the 5th IPCC report and I am also aware of claims by
> reputable climate scientists that the models' predictions appear to be
> deviating increasingly from the observables:
> Are you aware that Judith Curry was on the Berkley Earth team to resolve the
> question of whether the earth is actually warming. She and Richard Muller
> had been critical of the analyses performed by NOAA, Hadley, CRU, and GISS.
> When the new analysis, which met all the past criticisms, confirmed all the
> previous conclusions, she quit the team and shifted her criticism from "it's
> not happening" to "it's not predictable". Notice that means it could be a
> lot worse than predicted too - but the Deniers and FUDers never mention
I've been around long enough to know that she could possibly describe
the same sequence of events in a way that makes her look good and her
opponents bad. I am more interested in the graphs.
> I am not invested in disproving global warming. I like to think I am
> scientifically-minded, so I accept reality whatever it is. I hope it
> is wrong. I suspect some people want it to be true.
> Yes, you're the perfect example of the success of the Deniers FUD campaign.
Maybe, but I would be more confident that I was witnessing a serious
scientific debate if people were not using terms like "Deniers" and
> 98% of all climate scientists agree that AGW is happening and it will have
> bad consequences.
This is a badly disguised argument from authority. It's precisely
phrases like "98% of all climate scientists..." that triggered my BS
alarms in this issue.
> But you're aware of skeptical scientists, like Judith
> Curry (who are given TV time on Faux News), so it's a toss-up. It's been
> heavily politicized - by money from the fossil fuel companies - so no news
> can be trusted. You're not expert enough to read the scientific literature
> - so you're agnostic.
This may be the case.
> You *suspect* some people want it to be true???
Well I'm almost sure.
> In other words you suspect
> some academics of wanting to trash the world economy for vague, unexpressed
> personal reasons.
I wasn't referring to the academics, nor suggesting wrong-doings. Some
people strongly dislike capitalism and take pleasure in the
possibility that it could be destructive for the environment. There's
a sort of moral reward for them in that. Notice that I'm not saying
that they are wrong. They could be right. I am saying that they may be
> But you don't suspect the Koch brothers, Exxon, BP, Faux
> News, the Discovery Institute, the MacArthur Foundation, and a host of
> right-wing think tanks of wanting it to be false AND paying a lot of PR
> firms to obfuscate the issue.
Of course I suspect that too. In fact I'm essentially sure that they
are doing all that. But this doesn't mean that the global warming
models are correct.
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