On Mon, Nov 11, 2013 at 12:04 AM, meekerdb <meeke...@verizon.net> wrote:
> On 11/10/2013 2:19 PM, Telmo Menezes wrote:
>> On Sun, Nov 10, 2013 at 10:05 PM, meekerdb <meeke...@verizon.net> wrote:
>>> On 11/10/2013 12:29 PM, Telmo Menezes wrote:
>>> As I said before, I am agnostic on this issue for the following reasons:
>>> - I am not educated in climate science and I am sufficiently educated
>>> in science to understand that it would take years of full-time effort
>>> to get to a point where I could judge the merit of climate science
>>> research findings by myself -- even there I would probably have to
>>> become an insider, because I understand that a lot of key data is
>>> never made publicly available;
>>> - I am sufficiently knowledgable of complex systems to be skeptical of
>>> the predictive power of any complex systems model at our current level
>>> of sophistication;
>>> - The issue became so heavily politicised that it is basically not
>>> reasonable to trust news reporting on either side of it.
>>> I am aware of the 5th IPCC report and I am also aware of claims by
>>> reputable climate scientists that the models' predictions appear to be
>>> deviating increasingly from the observables:
>>> Are you aware that Judith Curry was on the Berkley Earth team to resolve
>>> question of whether the earth is actually warming. She and Richard
>>> had been critical of the analyses performed by NOAA, Hadley, CRU, and
>>> When the new analysis, which met all the past criticisms, confirmed all
>>> previous conclusions, she quit the team and shifted her criticism from
>>> not happening" to "it's not predictable". Notice that means it could be
>>> lot worse than predicted too - but the Deniers and FUDers never mention
>> I've been around long enough to know that she could possibly describe
>> the same sequence of events in a way that makes her look good and her
>> opponents bad. I am more interested in the graphs.
> Then look at these:
Ok so what's wrong with Judith's graphs?
>>> I am not invested in disproving global warming. I like to think I am
>>> scientifically-minded, so I accept reality whatever it is. I hope it
>>> is wrong. I suspect some people want it to be true.
>>> Yes, you're the perfect example of the success of the Deniers FUD
>> Maybe, but I would be more confident that I was witnessing a serious
>> scientific debate if people were not using terms like "Deniers" and
>> "FUD campaign".
> But that's exactly the point. You are NOT witnessing a serious scientific
> debate. There's ZERO serious science on the side of Deniers.
This is an extraordinary claim. Zero serious science?
> They are like
You resort too much to ad hominem and arguments from authority. If
we're having a long conversation about this then use it to teach me
something instead. Explain me the models and explain why the deniers
> All they do is look for some small anomaly (like a
> prediction that was off) and say, "What about THAT?". You are witnessing a
> disinformation campaign - and the cui bono is pretty obvious.
>>> 98% of all climate scientists agree that AGW is happening and it will
>>> bad consequences.
>> This is a badly disguised argument from authority. It's precisely
>> phrases like "98% of all climate scientists..." that triggered my BS
>> alarms in this issue.
> Since you said you didn't feel up to understanding the science what are you
> going to rely on?
I didn't say I didn't feel like it or that I was unwilling to do it. I
said I believed it would not be possible, with a reasonable amount of
effort, to have an informed opinion. Are you a climatologist? If not,
you seem to believe otherwise beacuse you arrived at a strong
conclusion. In which case, feel free to tell me about the models and
why it's easier to be certain than I think.
> Talking heads on Faux News or the IPCC?
This is a false dichotomy, of course. I sent you a link from the blog
of an accredited climate scientist. Her credentials seem legit, from
what I can gather from the Internet. Your reply to that was to attack
her character, not her ideas or data. This worries me.
I assume Faux News means Fox News? I'm not an american so I must have
watched Fox News two or three times in my life, out of morbid
curiosity when travelling. Plus a few funny videos on youtube that
>>> But you're aware of skeptical scientists, like Judith
>>> Curry (who are given TV time on Faux News), so it's a toss-up. It's been
>>> heavily politicized - by money from the fossil fuel companies - so no
>>> can be trusted. You're not expert enough to read the scientific
>>> - so you're agnostic.
>> This may be the case.
>>> You *suspect* some people want it to be true???
>> Well I'm almost sure.
>>> In other words you suspect
>>> some academics of wanting to trash the world economy for vague,
>>> personal reasons.
>> I wasn't referring to the academics, nor suggesting wrong-doings. Some
>> people strongly dislike capitalism and take pleasure in the
>> possibility that it could be destructive for the environment. There's
>> a sort of moral reward for them in that. Notice that I'm not saying
>> that they are wrong. They could be right. I am saying that they may be
> Since they are not the ones publishing studies and analyses what does their
> opinion have to do with anything? Your implication was that the warnings
> about AGW were falsely motivated. What difference does it make if Joe
> Sixpack is biased (and you can bet he's not biased in favor of high fuel
>>> But you don't suspect the Koch brothers, Exxon, BP, Faux
>>> News, the Discovery Institute, the MacArthur Foundation, and a host of
>>> right-wing think tanks of wanting it to be false AND paying a lot of PR
>>> firms to obfuscate the issue.
>> Of course I suspect that too. In fact I'm essentially sure that they
>> are doing all that. But this doesn't mean that the global warming
>> models are correct.
> Yet you're willing to suspect the IPCC report by scientists is phony because
> some anti-capitalists believe it??? Seems to me that you're biased because
> you think that if AGW is serious it will require government action and
> cannot be "fixed" by free market capitalism. So it's easier to believe AGW
> is a hoax (as some Congressmen from oil states have charged).
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