On 11/11/2013 3:39 PM, LizR wrote:
On 12 November 2013 09:37, meekerdb <meeke...@verizon.net <mailto:meeke...@verizon.net>> wrote:


    On 11/11/2013 11:21 AM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:
    You find you every day, according to you, every day should not happen, only 
being
    10¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰ is likely, it's just non-sense, your life 
is not
    random sampled, yesterday happen before today and before tomorrow. That 
doesn't
    make today less likely than tomorrow.

    Sure, but it makes the interval (0,75) less likely than the interval (75, 
inf).

Unless you're Billy Pilgrim from "Slaughterhouse 5" this argument doesn't make sense, beause you are forced to sample your days in ascending order.

But what does that have to do with the probabilities? A "sample" is when I ask myself, how probable is it that my age is what it is today. I don't have to do this everyday. In fact I'm very unlikely to have done it before age 4. So I don't see why sequence is determinative. ISTM is only implies that tomorrow will be less likely than today (since I may not ask tomorrow; possibly because I'm dead).

Suppose you're Benjamin Button.  For him would it be OK to say it's surprising 
I'm only 75?

Brent

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