I can find nothing to argue with here, I too have been saying this for a while now. Ronald Wright is the go-to man for the exact details imho.
On 16 March 2014 06:33, Chris de Morsella <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > *From:* [email protected] [mailto: > [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Edgar L. Owen > > > > >>All, this seems like a very reasonable scenario and is in line with my > thinking...... Edgar > > > > Without wishing for it - nobody (except, the Doomerist lunatic fringe > perhaps, actually wants it to happen) - I look at the facts on the ground > and see collapse as having a pretty high probability of becoming manifest. > Industrial civilization has burned through and used up about half of > everything - from oil, to aquifers, to top soil, to all manner of strategic > minerals and so on - in a geologic blink of an eye. The pace of resource > consumption ramped up - due to the multiplier effect of cheap liquid > energy, i.e. the Oil Age and this prodigious amount of energy has enabled > our species to very effectively withdraw our planets - recoverable -- > natural resource bank account towards zero. We humans are entropy > multipliers. > > Realism is often much harder than pretending everything is fine and > persistent unsolvable problems get swept under the rug by us for as long as > we can possibly manage.... These persistent - kick the can down the road type > of problem - can be band-aided for a while and ignored, but in the end if > not addressed will lead to systemic and often quite sudden collapse... as the > article points out, something that has occurred multiple times in human > history. > > Chris > > > > > http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/mar/14/nasa-civilisation-irreversible-collapse-study-scientists > NASA-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible > collapse'? > > > > Natural and social scientists develop new model of how 'perfect storm' of > crises could unravel global system > > [image: This NASA Earth Observatory released on] > > This Nasa Earth Observatory image shows a storm system circling around an > area of extreme low pressure in 2010, which many scientists attribute to > climate change. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images > > A new study sponsored by Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center has > highlighted the prospect that global industrial civilisation could collapse > in coming decades due to unsustainable resource exploitation and > increasingly unequal wealth distribution. > > Noting that warnings of 'collapse' are often seen to be fringe or > controversial, the study attempts to make sense of compelling historical > data showing that "the process of rise-and-collapse is actually a recurrent > cycle found throughout history." Cases of severe civilisational disruption > due to "precipitous collapse - often lasting centuries - have been quite > common." > > The research project is based on a new cross-disciplinary 'Human And > Nature DYnamical' (HANDY) model, led by applied mathematician Safa > Motesharri of the US National Science Foundation-supported National > Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center <http://www.sesync.org/>, in > association with a team of natural and social scientists. The study based > on the HANDY model has been accepted for publication in the peer-reviewed > Elsevier journal, Ecological Economics. > > It finds that according to the historical record even advanced, complex > civilisations are susceptible to collapse, raising questions about the > sustainability of modern civilisation: > > "The fall of the Roman Empire, and the equally (if not more) advanced Han, > Mauryan, and Gupta Empires, as well as so many advanced Mesopotamian > Empires, are all testimony to the fact that advanced, sophisticated, > complex, and creative civilizations can be both fragile and impermanent." > > By investigating the human-nature dynamics of these past cases of > collapse, the project identifies the most salient interrelated factors > which explain civilisational decline, and which may help determine the risk > of collapse today: namely, Population, Climate, Water, Agriculture, and > Energy <http://www.theguardian.com/environment/energy>. > > These factors can lead to collapse when they converge to generate two > crucial social features: "the stretching of resources due to the strain > placed on the ecological carrying capacity"; and "the economic > stratification of society into Elites [rich] and Masses (or "Commoners") > [poor]" These social phenomena have played "a central role in the character > or in the process of the collapse," in all such cases over "the last five > thousand years." > > Currently, high levels of economic stratification are linked directly to > overconsumption of resources, with "Elites" based largely in industrialised > countries responsible for both: > > "... accumulated surplus is not evenly distributed throughout society, but > rather has been controlled by an elite. The mass of the population, while > producing the wealth, is only allocated a small portion of it by elites, > usually at or just above subsistence levels." > > The study challenges those who argue that technology will resolve these > challenges by increasing efficiency: > > "Technological change can raise the efficiency of resource use, but it > also tends to raise both per capita resource consumption and the scale of > resource extraction, so that, absent policy effects, the increases in > consumption often compensate for the increased efficiency of resource use." > > Productivity increases in agriculture and industry over the last two > centuries has come from "increased (rather than decreased) resource > throughput," despite dramatic efficiency gains over the same period. > > Modelling a range of different scenarios, Motesharri and his colleagues > conclude that under conditions "closely reflecting the reality of the world > today... we find that collapse is difficult to avoid." In the first of > these scenarios, civilisation: > > ".... appears to be on a sustainable path for quite a long time, but even > using an optimal depletion rate and starting with a very small number of > Elites, the Elites eventually consume too much, resulting in a famine among > Commoners that eventually causes the collapse of society. It is important > to note that this Type-L collapse is due to an inequality-induced famine > that causes a loss of workers, rather than a collapse of Nature." > > Another scenario focuses on the role of continued resource exploitation, > finding that "with a larger depletion rate, the decline of the Commoners > occurs faster, while the Elites are still thriving, but eventually the > Commoners collapse completely, followed by the Elites." > > In both scenarios, Elite wealth monopolies mean that they are buffered > from the most "detrimental effects of the environmental collapse until much > later than the Commoners", allowing them to "continue 'business as usual' > despite the impending catastrophe." The same mechanism, they argue, could > explain how "historical collapses were allowed to occur by elites who > appear to be oblivious to the catastrophic trajectory (most clearly > apparent in the Roman and Mayan cases)." > > Applying this lesson to our contemporary predicament, the study warns that: > > "While some members of society might raise the alarm that the system is > moving towards an impending collapse and therefore advocate structural > changes to society in order to avoid it, Elites and their supporters, who > opposed making these changes, could point to the long sustainable > trajectory 'so far' in support of doing nothing." > > However, the scientists point out that the worst-case scenarios are by no > means inevitable, and suggest that appropriate policy and structural > changes could avoid collapse, if not pave the way toward a more stable > civilisation. > > The two key solutions are to reduce economic inequality so as to ensure > fairer distribution of resources, and to dramatically reduce resource > consumption by relying on less intensive renewable resources and reducing > population growth: > > "Collapse can be avoided and population can reach equilibrium if the per > capita rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level, and > if resources are distributed in a reasonably equitable fashion." > > The NASA-funded HANDY model offers a highly credible wake-up call to > governments, corporations and business - and consumers - to recognise that > 'business as usual' cannot be sustained, and that policy and structural > changes are required immediately. > > Although the study is largely theoretical, a number of other more > empirically-focused studies - by > KPMG<http://www.kpmg.com/global/en/issuesandinsights/articlespublications/future-state-government/pages/resource-stress.aspx> > and > the UK Government Office of > Science<http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/goscience/docs/p/perfect-storm-paper.pdf> > for > instance - have warned that the convergence of food, water and energy > crises could create a 'perfect storm' within about fifteen years. But these > 'business as usual' forecasts could be very > conservative<http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it-the-rise-of-the-post-carbon-era/> > . > > *Dr Nafeez Ahmed <http://www.nafeezahmed.com/> is executive director of > the Institute for Policy Research & Development > <http://www.iprd.org.uk/> and author of A User's Guide to the Crisis of > Civilisation: And How to Save It > <http://www.crisisofcivilization.com/> among other books. Follow him on > Twitter **@nafeezahmed <https://twitter.com/NafeezAhmed>* > > > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Everything List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Everything List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. 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