My only doubt is how long it will take to convert this discussion list, once devoted to science and (some) philosophy, into a pure mambo-jambo babble of left liberals new agers and ecoloalarmists among others
2014-03-17 16:48 GMT+01:00 Alberto G. Corona <[email protected]>: > An excellent piece of postmarxist (marxism rephrased as sociological > "science") by the church of progressivism. > > > > > > Unless the budget of the NASA and specially these "experts" is increased > and a change in global politics and another international bureau of world > engineers is created overcoming democratic control. Of course it must be > headed by these "experts" > > > 2014-03-15 13:46 GMT+01:00 Edgar L. Owen <[email protected]>: > > All, this seems like a very reasonable scenario and is in line with my >> thinking...... Edgar >> >> >> >> http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/mar/14/nasa-civilisation-irreversible-collapse-study-scientists >> NASA-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible >> collapse'? >> >> Natural and social scientists develop new model of how 'perfect storm' of >> crises could unravel global system >> [image: This NASA Earth Observatory released on] >> This Nasa Earth Observatory image shows a storm system circling around an >> area of extreme low pressure in 2010, which many scientists attribute to >> climate change. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images >> >> A new study sponsored by Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center has >> highlighted the prospect that global industrial civilisation could collapse >> in coming decades due to unsustainable resource exploitation and >> increasingly unequal wealth distribution. >> >> Noting that warnings of 'collapse' are often seen to be fringe or >> controversial, the study attempts to make sense of compelling historical >> data showing that "the process of rise-and-collapse is actually a recurrent >> cycle found throughout history." Cases of severe civilisational disruption >> due to "precipitous collapse - often lasting centuries - have been quite >> common." >> >> The research project is based on a new cross-disciplinary 'Human And >> Nature DYnamical' (HANDY) model, led by applied mathematician Safa >> Motesharri of the US National Science Foundation-supported National >> Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center <http://www.sesync.org/>, in >> association with a team of natural and social scientists. The study based >> on the HANDY model has been accepted for publication in the peer-reviewed >> Elsevier journal, Ecological Economics. >> >> It finds that according to the historical record even advanced, complex >> civilisations are susceptible to collapse, raising questions about the >> sustainability of modern civilisation: >> >> "The fall of the Roman Empire, and the equally (if not more) advanced >> Han, Mauryan, and Gupta Empires, as well as so many advanced Mesopotamian >> Empires, are all testimony to the fact that advanced, sophisticated, >> complex, and creative civilizations can be both fragile and impermanent." >> >> By investigating the human-nature dynamics of these past cases of >> collapse, the project identifies the most salient interrelated factors >> which explain civilisational decline, and which may help determine the risk >> of collapse today: namely, Population, Climate, Water, Agriculture, and >> Energy <http://www.theguardian.com/environment/energy>. >> >> These factors can lead to collapse when they converge to generate two >> crucial social features: "the stretching of resources due to the strain >> placed on the ecological carrying capacity"; and "the economic >> stratification of society into Elites [rich] and Masses (or "Commoners") >> [poor]" These social phenomena have played "a central role in the character >> or in the process of the collapse," in all such cases over "the last five >> thousand years." >> >> Currently, high levels of economic stratification are linked directly to >> overconsumption of resources, with "Elites" based largely in industrialised >> countries responsible for both: >> >> "... accumulated surplus is not evenly distributed throughout society, >> but rather has been controlled by an elite. The mass of the population, >> while producing the wealth, is only allocated a small portion of it by >> elites, usually at or just above subsistence levels." >> >> The study challenges those who argue that technology will resolve these >> challenges by increasing efficiency: >> >> "Technological change can raise the efficiency of resource use, but it >> also tends to raise both per capita resource consumption and the scale of >> resource extraction, so that, absent policy effects, the increases in >> consumption often compensate for the increased efficiency of resource use." >> >> Productivity increases in agriculture and industry over the last two >> centuries has come from "increased (rather than decreased) resource >> throughput," despite dramatic efficiency gains over the same period. >> >> Modelling a range of different scenarios, Motesharri and his colleagues >> conclude that under conditions "closely reflecting the reality of the world >> today... we find that collapse is difficult to avoid." In the first of >> these scenarios, civilisation: >> >> ".... appears to be on a sustainable path for quite a long time, but even >> using an optimal depletion rate and starting with a very small number of >> Elites, the Elites eventually consume too much, resulting in a famine among >> Commoners that eventually causes the collapse of society. It is important >> to note that this Type-L collapse is due to an inequality-induced famine >> that causes a loss of workers, rather than a collapse of Nature." >> >> Another scenario focuses on the role of continued resource exploitation, >> finding that "with a larger depletion rate, the decline of the Commoners >> occurs faster, while the Elites are still thriving, but eventually the >> Commoners collapse completely, followed by the Elites." >> >> In both scenarios, Elite wealth monopolies mean that they are buffered >> from the most "detrimental effects of the environmental collapse until much >> later than the Commoners", allowing them to "continue 'business as usual' >> despite the impending catastrophe." The same mechanism, they argue, could >> explain how "historical collapses were allowed to occur by elites who >> appear to be oblivious to the catastrophic trajectory (most clearly >> apparent in the Roman and Mayan cases)." >> >> Applying this lesson to our contemporary predicament, the study warns >> that: >> >> "While some members of society might raise the alarm that the system is >> moving towards an impending collapse and therefore advocate structural >> changes to society in order to avoid it, Elites and their supporters, who >> opposed making these changes, could point to the long sustainable >> trajectory 'so far' in support of doing nothing." >> >> However, the scientists point out that the worst-case scenarios are by no >> means inevitable, and suggest that appropriate policy and structural >> changes could avoid collapse, if not pave the way toward a more stable >> civilisation. >> >> The two key solutions are to reduce economic inequality so as to ensure >> fairer distribution of resources, and to dramatically reduce resource >> consumption by relying on less intensive renewable resources and reducing >> population growth: >> >> "Collapse can be avoided and population can reach equilibrium if the per >> capita rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level, and >> if resources are distributed in a reasonably equitable fashion." >> >> The NASA-funded HANDY model offers a highly credible wake-up call to >> governments, corporations and business - and consumers - to recognise that >> 'business as usual' cannot be sustained, and that policy and structural >> changes are required immediately. >> >> Although the study is largely theoretical, a number of other more >> empirically-focused studies - by >> KPMG<http://www.kpmg.com/global/en/issuesandinsights/articlespublications/future-state-government/pages/resource-stress.aspx> >> and >> the UK Government Office of >> Science<http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/goscience/docs/p/perfect-storm-paper.pdf> >> for >> instance - have warned that the convergence of food, water and energy >> crises could create a 'perfect storm' within about fifteen years. But these >> 'business as usual' forecasts could be very >> conservative<http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it-the-rise-of-the-post-carbon-era/> >> . >> >> *Dr Nafeez Ahmed <http://www.nafeezahmed.com/> is executive director of >> the Institute for Policy Research & Development >> <http://www.iprd.org.uk/> and author of A User's Guide to the Crisis of >> Civilisation: And How to Save It >> <http://www.crisisofcivilization.com/> among other books. Follow him on >> Twitter @nafeezahmed <https://twitter.com/NafeezAhmed>* >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "Everything List" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to [email protected]. >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >> Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. >> For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. >> > > > > -- > Alberto. > -- Alberto. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
