On Sun, 6 Aug 2017 at 3:23 am, John Clark <johnkcl...@gmail.com> wrote:

> On Sat, Aug 5, 2017 at 10:04 AM, Stathis Papaioannou <stath...@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>> ​
>>> ​>> ​
>>> Without the ​duplicating machine after it's all over you can say
>>> "Yesterday I shouldn't have said there is a 30% chance event B will happen,
>>> yesterday I should have said there is a 100% chance event B will happen",
>>> but if personal pronoun duplicating machines are used then "you" couldn't
>>> say that. And that's not equivalent.
>> ​> ​
>> If you are one of the copies experiencing event B, you can say that, had
>> you known, yesterday you should have said there was a 100% chance of event
>> B happening.
> ​No, Mr. B can't say that because the question wasn't about what Mr. B
> will see (and everybody correctly predicted that Mr. B will see event B
> anyway) the question was about what Mr. Yesterday will see. Saying Mr.
> Yesterday will see B happen with 100% certainty is the truth but NOT the
> entire truth, Mr. Yesterday will also see A ​happen with 100% certainty
> because Mr. Yesterday has been duplicated, that's what people duplicating
> machines do. And that means today there will be 2 people, not just Mr. B,
> who remembers yesterday.
> Not everything is
> ​ ​
> unitary, that is to say summing up all the probabilities of the
> ​ ​
> possible
> ​ ​
> outcomes of a event don't always add up to 100%. If I slice a orange in
> half and put the pieces in 2 boxes there is a 100% chance there is a orange
> object in box A and a 100% chance there is a orange object in box B.
>> ​> ​
>> However, you could not have known, because what each copy experiences is
>> irreducibly random. Not even an omniscient oracle could instil in a person
>> undergoing duplication knowledge of the future which would turn out correct
>> for each copy.
> ​I'm not a ​
> omniscient oracle
> ​ ​ but even I can say
> which would turn out correct for each copy
> ​.  Mr. A will see A and Mr. B will see B. What more is there to say? What
> exactly have I failed to predict?​ And by the way, if a
> omniscient oracle
> ​ can't answer a question that can only be because it wasn't a question.

The prediction that not even the oracle could make is "which event will I
see after the duplication?". It is a valid question because I understand
it, others on this list understand it, and even animals at a primitive
level understand it. The question has a definite answer after the
duplication: "I see A", or "I see B", depending on which copy is speaking.
It does not have a definite answer before the duplication because of the
irreducible randomness, but this does not make the question meaningless.

> --
Stathis Papaioannou

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