On Wed, Feb 7, 2018 at 7:38 AM, Telmo Menezes <te...@telmomenezes.com>
wrote:

​> ​
> To summarize the argument:
>
> 1. A sufficiently advanced civilization is bound to become a galactic
> civilization;
> 2. We do not observe a galactic civilization;
> 3. If other instances of life are found, this means that life is not so
> rare;
> 4. So it is likely that there is a major obstacle that prevents a
> ​ ​
> civilization from becoming galactic,
>

​I think that's a pretty good summary. ​



> ​> ​
> and this filter is likely to be
> ​ ​
> ahead of us.


​I wouldn't say its likely I'd say it's unknown if the filter is ahead of
us or if we already passed it and we're the first to make it this far.​



> ​> ​
> It's an interesting argument but I think it is based on some rather
> strong assumptions:
>
> (a) That becoming a galactic civilization is possible;
>

​Right, and it may not be possible, technological civilizations may always
get destroyed or start to become moribund whenever they get much beyond the
point we're at now. ​



> ​>
> b) That becoming a galactic civilization is desirable;
>

​
Right, ET might prefer to become a
​ ​
navel gazer
​ ​
and spend eternity in the electronic equivalent of a crack house, but even
if 99% chose that path if just one individual in one civilization choose to
make
​one​
 Von Neumann Probe
​ then we'd see evidence of that fact. But we see nothing. ​


> ​> ​
> (c) That galactic civilizations are observable by us.
>

​If its not observable to a blind man in ​
a fog bank then it doesn't deserve to be called a galactic civilization. ​

>
​> ​
> Firstly we don't know if there's an upper limit for technological
> ​ ​
> progress, or where that limit could be.


We know some things, we know that ​if the laws of physics work the way we
think they do then perpetual motion machines and time machines and faster
than light spaceships are not possible, ​but Nanotechnology is. And if
Nanotechnology is possible so are  Von Neumann Probe
​s.

​> ​
> Maybe interstellar travel or
> ​ ​
> the colonization of other planets will never be feasible.


​We know for a fact interstellar travel is possible because even asteroids
can do it, it just takes longer than the lifetime of a certain bipedal
animal, but 50 million years is nothing to a
Von Neumann Probe
​.

https://www.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/faq/interstellar



> ​> ​
> Secondly, we
> ​ ​
> are assuming a lot about a civilization that would be dramatically
> ​ ​
> ahead of us both culturally and technologically.


​Yes, I'm assuming they're not electronic drug addicts, if they are there
would be no point in contacting them. ​



> ​> ​
> maybe a galactic civilization does exist but does not wish to be
> ​ ​
> detected by the likes of us.
>

​I don't see why a ​galactic civilization would give a damn if we knew
about them or not, and even they can't hide from the second law
of thermodynamics. Where is the galactic civilization's waste heat??

John K Clark

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