On Sunday, February 11, 2018 at 3:15:43 PM UTC-6, John Clark wrote:
> On Sun, Feb 11, 2018 at 8:20 AM, Lawrence Crowell <
> goldenfield...@gmail.com <javascript:>> wrote:
> ​>​
>>   Human expansion into virtual space is far greater than outer space. In 
>> fact with the end of the shuttle program we may have passed what might be 
>> called peak astronaut. The number of astronauts going up is declining. 
>> There has been a great expansion of course with space science done with 
>> probes, astronomical instruments and robots in space, but no such with 
>> humans in space. Further, it is pretty clear that humans are preferring the 
>> computer generated virtual realities to the far more difficult business of 
>> actually going into space.
> ET might prefer virtual reality but that still can't explain why not one 
> ET in any civilization has even a slight interest in large scale 
> engineering. Unless the civilization has
> ​ 
> completely
> ​ 
> stagnated and every single individual in it is content to relive the same 
> ​plesent​
>  experience over and over
> ​ 
> and over
> ​ 
> again in a electronic opium den they're going to want their virtual world 
> to be as rich and interesting as they can
> ​ 
> make it
> ​
> , and to do that you need energy. Even today humans use 1.4% of the global 
> electricity
> ​ ​
> power grid on data processing, and its growing at a much faster rate 
> (4.4%) than the overall increase in the consumption
> of electrical energy.
> ​John K Clark​

It may have to do with complexity. The Kolmogoroff complexity or entropy of 
a system roughly scales with the area bounding that system, and any IGUS 
that begins to control that sort of hypertechnology must manage that sort 
of complexity. Most likely they evolved like us with neuro-networks adapted 
from some natural condition and eventually as they progress they find they 
can no longer manage things. Their situation implodes. I suspect our 
situation will implode this century. 

As for von Neumann probes, these will over time evolve to form potentially 
a sort of "galactic bacteria." They may simply not evolve in most cases to 
engage in massive programs. It may be more to their advantage to stay small 
and take advantage of the sparse resources available by being conservative.


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