On 2/18/2018 12:15 PM, agrayson2...@gmail.com wrote:
On Sunday, February 18, 2018 at 12:09:37 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote:
On 2/18/2018 6:11 AM, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
On Sunday, February 18, 2018 at 4:25:07 AM UTC-6, Russell
Standish wrote:
On Sat, Feb 17, 2018 at 05:19:22PM -0800, Brent Meeker wrote:
>
>
> On 2/17/2018 4:58 PM, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
> > But what is the criterion when AI exceeds human
intelligence? AG
> >
> >
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-16/father-artificial-intelligence-singularity-less-30-years-away
<https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-16/father-artificial-intelligence-singularity-less-30-years-away>
>
> So we need to sharpen the question. Exactly *what* is
30yrs away?
>
> Brent
>
According to the title (I haven't RTFA), it's the
singularity. Starting from a point where a machine designs,
and manufactures improved copies of itself, technology will
supposedly
veer from it's exponential path (Moore's law) etc to
hyperbolic. Being
hyperbolic, it reaches infinity within a finite period of time,
expected to be a matter of months perhaps.
Given that we really don't understand creative processes (not
even
good old fashioned biological evolution is really well
understood),
I'm sceptical about the 30 years prognostication. It is
mostly based on
extrapolating Moore's law, which is the easy part of
technological change.
This won't be a problem for my children - my grandchildren
perhaps, if
I ever end up having any.
Cheers
One thing a computer can not do is ask a question. I can ask a
question and program a computer to help solve the problem. In
fact I am doing a program to do just this. I am working a
computer program to model aspects of gravitational memory. What
the computer will not do, at least computers we currently employ
will not do is to ask the question and then work to solve it. A
computer can find a numerical solution or render something
numerically, but it does not spontaneously act to ask the
question or to propose something creative to then solve or render
the solution.
You must never have applied for a loan online.
It can only do what it has been programmed to do. I can't act
independent of its program, such as wondering if some theory makes
sense, or coming up with tests of a theory. Or say, it can't invent
chess, it can only play it better than humans. It can't "think" out of
the box. AG
Yes, keep repeating that over and over. Repitition makes a convincing
argument...for some people.
Brent
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