On 2/18/2018 12:15 PM, agrayson2...@gmail.com wrote:


On Sunday, February 18, 2018 at 12:09:37 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote:



    On 2/18/2018 6:11 AM, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
    On Sunday, February 18, 2018 at 4:25:07 AM UTC-6, Russell
    Standish wrote:

        On Sat, Feb 17, 2018 at 05:19:22PM -0800, Brent Meeker wrote:
        >
        >
        > On 2/17/2018 4:58 PM, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
        > > But what is the criterion when AI exceeds human
        intelligence? AG
        > >
        > >
        
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-16/father-artificial-intelligence-singularity-less-30-years-away
        
<https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-16/father-artificial-intelligence-singularity-less-30-years-away>

        >
        > So we need to sharpen the question.  Exactly *what* is
        30yrs away?
        >
        > Brent
        >

        According to the title (I haven't RTFA), it's the
        singularity. Starting from a point where a machine designs,
        and manufactures improved copies of itself, technology will
        supposedly
        veer from it's exponential path (Moore's law) etc to
        hyperbolic. Being
        hyperbolic, it reaches infinity within a finite period of time,
        expected to be a matter of months perhaps.

        Given that we really don't understand creative processes (not
        even
        good old fashioned biological evolution is really well
        understood),
        I'm sceptical about the 30 years prognostication. It is
        mostly based on
        extrapolating Moore's law, which is the easy part of
        technological change.

        This won't be a problem for my children - my grandchildren
        perhaps, if
        I ever end up having any.

        Cheers


    One thing a computer can not do is ask a question. I can ask a
    question and program a computer to help solve the problem. In
    fact I am doing a program to do just this. I am working a
    computer program to model aspects of gravitational memory. What
    the computer will not do, at least computers we currently employ
    will not do is to ask the question and then work to solve it. A
    computer can find a numerical solution or render something
    numerically, but it does not spontaneously act to ask the
    question or to propose something creative to then solve or render
    the solution.

    You must never have applied for a loan online.


It can only do what it has been programmed to do. I can't act independent of its program, such as wondering if some theory makes sense, or coming up with tests of a theory. Or say, it can't invent chess, it can only play it better than humans. It can't "think" out of the box. AG

Yes, keep repeating that over and over.  Repitition makes a convincing argument...for some people.

Brent

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