On Friday, March 2, 2018 at 4:51:36 PM UTC-5, agrays...@gmail.com wrote: > > > > On Friday, March 2, 2018 at 2:32:30 PM UTC-5, Lawrence Crowell wrote: >> >> On Friday, March 2, 2018 at 12:03:33 PM UTC-6, John Clark wrote: >>> >>> >>> On <agrays...@gmail.com> wrote: >>> >>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>> > >>>>>>> >> >>>>>>> * * >>>>>>> *"A Statistical Analysis of the Martian Wave of Darkening and >>>>>>> Related Phenomena", Planetary and Space** Science , 15, (1967) >>>>>>> 817-24. * >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >> >>>>>> *So you must be either * >>>>>> *James B.Pollack or Edward H.Greenberg. But... I thought your name >>>>>> was Alan Grayson.* >>>>>> >>>>> >>>>> *> You thought. Is that what you do?* >>>>> >>>> >>> Yep, >>> >>> thinking is what I do. >>> >>> * > Let me help. Pollack died in 1994 of cancer of the spin.* >>>> >>> >>> >>> So one of two things must be true: >>> >>> 1) >>> >>> You are >>> >>> Edward H.Greenberg >>> >>> and for some inscrutable changed your name to >>> >>> Alan Grayson. >>> 2) You are as phony as a three dollar bill and never wrote a paper with >>> Carl Sagan >>> , much less 2 >>> . >>> >>> >>>> > >>>> I worked with him >>>> [Sagan] >>>> directly for 18 months. He didn't regard me as a crackpot. >>> >>> >>> I can say with great confidence that if Sagan knew you at all (a big if) >>> and if you took the >>> >>> Roswell >>> >>> idiocy as seriously then as you do now then he did regard you as a >>> crackpot, although Sagan was always very polite and had more >>> >>> patience with fools than I do. >>> >>> John K Clark >>> >>> >> >> I saw Sagan at a conference, where he was a celebrity and I was just a >> grad student grunt. He was a lot older than I was, and anyone claiming to >> have worked with him is proclaiming their senior citizen status. >> >> I looked up in Wikipedia on Sagan to look at papers he published. I ran >> into this little quote >> >> Sagan's Paradox >> >> >> Sagan's contribution to the 1969 symposium was an attack on the belief >> that UFOs are piloted by extraterrestrial beings: Applying several logical >> assumptions (see Drake equation >> <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation>), Sagan calculated the >> possible number of advanced civilizations capable of interstellar travel to >> be about one million. He projected that any civilization wishing to check >> on all the others on a regular basis of, say, once a year would have to >> launch 10,000 spacecraft annually. Not only does that seem like an >> unreasonable number of launchings, but it would take all the material in >> one percent of the universe's stars to produce all the spaceships needed >> for all the civilizations to seek each other out. >> >> >> To argue that the earth was being chosen for regular visitations, Sagan >> said, one would have to assume that the planet is somehow unique. And that >> assumption "goes exactly against the idea that there are lots of >> civilizations around. Because if there are then our sort of civilization >> must be pretty common. And if we're not pretty common then there aren't >> going to be many civilizations advanced enough to send visitors." >> >> which is sort of interesting. Chock up another of these "paradoxes" that >> point to the rarity or paucity of ETs out there. >> >> LC >> > > *One obvious hole in this argument is that an ET civilization could be > fairly close, say within a few light years, or possibly much closer > evolving on a planet near some undiscovered brown dwarf, and/or they could > live immensely longer than humans, thus finding interstellar travel > tolerable even if light speed is a limiting factor. What you haven't done > is to independently assess the credibility of the witnesses in the video. > AG* >
*Sagan's statistical analysis assumes and argues against thousands of ET contacts. But it might be only by a few; those who found the Earth suitable for life and interesting for extended research. So they may have established an observational presence here long ago and are continuing their research. Of course, I don't *know* this is the case. I am only showing the weakness of a statistical analysis in reaching a negative conclusion about ET visitations when one has virtually no hard evidence of the motives and locations of ET civilizations. AG* -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
